Bitfinex report: Bitcoin price is currently driven by spot demand, laying the foundation for a high-certainty mean-reversion trend.

On March 10th, Bitfinex released a report stating that "despite the escalating geopolitical conflict surrounding Iran's 'Black Saturday' two weeks prior and the disappointing US non-farm payroll data, which only added 92,000 jobs, the $60,000–$64,000 Bitcoin support range has shown unexpected resilience. International crude oil prices have risen sharply since then, which could impact future Consumer Price Index (CPI), as energy accounts for approximately 9% of the final CPI calculation. This inflationary pressure means that all risk assets are likely to face headwinds. However, for Bitcoin, two forces are currently at play. The first is that Bitcoin is more prone to and faster volatility compared to other risk assets. With its increased correlation with high-risk technology sectors and decreased correlation with safe-haven assets like gold, Bitcoin tends to experience more dramatic downward swings before other risk assets fall. However, it also typically bottoms out earlier than other risk assets. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 over the past two quarters..." Or perhaps Nasdaq, this dynamic may be at play. The current market state can be described as a "deleveraging frenzy." Retail investor sentiment remains highly cautious, and Bitcoin has experienced a 52% retracement since its October 2025 high, meaning the speculative bubble in the market has almost completely deflated. This is evidenced by the leverage rebalancing index—the ratio of total open interest (OI) to total spot reserves on exchanges—which has now fallen to a multi-year low of 0.32. This suggests that price discovery is currently driven primarily by spot demand, rather than leveraged derivatives, laying the foundation for a high-certainty mean-reversion rally following a contraction in macroeconomic volatility.