The shutdown of the Hormuz oil valve planted a political bomb for Trump, exposing the structural vulnerabilities of Japan and South Korea.

On March 14, Garrett Jin, an agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale," published a lengthy article analyzing the global impact of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He pointed out that the resilience of Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, and other countries varies, and the crisis will erupt after the oil shortage reaches a threshold. Japan is the major economy with the most severe structural exposure globally, sourcing approximately 95% of its oil from the Middle East, with about 70% transported directly through the Strait of Hormuz. While Japan's strategic petroleum reserves nominally provide 254 days of energy, its liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves only last about three weeks, and LNG accounts for 40% of the power generation energy exposure of Japan's power grid. South Korea faces a similar situation to Japan, with 70.7% of its oil and 20.4% of its liquefied natural gas coming from the Middle East. Oil and natural gas together account for approximately 35% of its electricity generation. The South Korean stock index KOSPI has recently fallen by over 12%, triggering a trading halt at one point. President Lee Jae-myung announced a fuel price cap, the first such cap since the Asian financial crisis. Grid instability could threaten the capacity and yield of Samsung and SK Hynix semiconductor wafer fabs, thereby threatening global artificial intelligence infrastructure. The real vulnerability of the United States is political, not physical. Only about 2.5% of the oil throughput from the Strait of Hormuz reaches the United States, but with the midterm elections approaching, oil prices are the clearest economic signal for American voters. Trump launched military action against Iran while publicly promising to lower oil prices; however, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and over 60% of Gulf Arab oil production halted, this promise is physically impossible to fulfill. This contradiction cannot continue indefinitely; in the future, Trump will either face declining political support for the military campaign against Iran or a loss of credibility in economic management. According to Bitget data, Brent crude oil futures prices closed above $100 per barrel for the second consecutive trading day this morning, reaching their highest level in more than three years. U.S. crude oil futures closed near $99 per barrel, their highest level since July 2022. According to PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the CME WTI crude oil futures "Crude Oil (CL)" closing price breaking through $100 in March has risen to 92%, and the probability of closing price breaking through $120 has risen to 52%.