The market for predictions is facing legislative pressure; if Democrats regain control of Congress in 2027, they may increase regulatory pressure.

According to Odaily Odaily, the prediction market in the United States is experiencing rapid expansion, with monthly trading volume expected to grow from $1.2 billion at the beginning of 2025 to over $20 billion a year later, with political and sports contracts being the main trading categories. However, the industry is also facing pressure from more than six legislative proposals in Congress, most of which are driven by Democratic lawmakers, with some receiving bipartisan support. These bills cover multiple areas: the STOP Corrupt Bets Act proposes a comprehensive ban on contracts related to elections, government actions, sports, and military operations; the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act prohibits government employees from using insider information to place bets, and applies to the president, vice president, cabinet members, and members of Congress; the BETS OFF Act targets transactions involving sensitive events such as war, terrorism, and assassination; and the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act supports states in including sports event contracts in their betting regulations. Several states have filed lawsuits against Kalshi, a Nevada court has suspended Kalshi's operations in the state, and the Arizona Attorney General has filed 20 criminal charges against Kalshi. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig argues that the federal government has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, and his agency is pushing forward with the development of formal regulatory rules. An analysis by TRM Labs revealed that four wallets with virtually no prior trading history profited $872,000 from bets of approximately $40,000 in a previous contract predicting US military action against Iran, raising suspicions of insider trading. Currently, Polymarket rates the probability of Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives at 85%. If Democrats win the 2026 midterm elections, the push for such legislation could intensify.