Analysts: The era of Bitcoin's parabolic surge may be over, and the market is maturing.

According to Mars Finance, on April 1st, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole published an article stating that Bitcoin has been hovering around $70,000 since early February, well below the 2023-2025 bull market high of $126,000. $70,000 is the historical high of the 2019-2022 market cycle, meaning this bear market has retraced to the previous cycle's peak. This phenomenon is quite rare. In the bear markets of 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin never fell back to the previous cycle's high; the only exception was 2022, when the price fell below the 2017 high of $20,000, but analysts at that time attributed it to crypto scams and massive deleveraging. The current pullback is special because it occurred in the absence of extreme catalysts, simply as part of the natural decline of the bear market cycle. Each new bull market no longer exhibits a parabolic surge, making it increasingly difficult to push prices significantly above previous highs; old highs are no longer untouchable. This is a classic manifestation of diminishing returns: as Bitcoin prices rise, the capital required to drive price increases also grows. The era of triggering large price surges with small capital inflows is largely history, making price movements more stable and predictable. The institutionalization of Bitcoin and the expansion of the derivatives market have also smoothed out extreme volatility. Traders now possess structured tools for targeting volatility, timing, and market direction, rather than simply betting on price increases. This is drastically different from the pre-2020 era, when trading was almost entirely confined to the spot market, and active participants were often staunch Bitcoin bulls who rushed in to buy at the slightest price pullback. Old highs often form strong support due to "anchoring bias"—investors who missed the initial breakout tend to buy when prices return to familiar ranges, providing momentum for the next round of price movements. This also explains why the recent downtrend stalled around $70,000. If Bitcoin rebounds strongly from its current level, it may mean that the bear market is nearing its end; however, if the law of diminishing returns continues to play out, the next upward trend may be more moderate, exhibiting an orderly trend similar to traditional financial markets, rather than the crazy surge of the past speculative frenzy.