Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The failure of the US-Iran negotiations reignites geopolitical risks, and Federal Reserve officials deliver a flurry of statements.

According to Mars Finance, on April 12th, after a brief lull in the ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply over the weekend. The 21-hour US-Iran talks ended without an agreement – Iran rejected the US-proposed clause of "not developing nuclear weapons," and US Vice President Vance announced the end of the talks, but left room for interpretation. The two-week pause in attacks announced by Trump is fast approaching, and its future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, a US destroyer claimed to have completed the first post-war passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iranian officials immediately denied, indicating the ongoing information war between the two sides. Next week, geopolitics will again dominate market sentiment, and every piece of news regarding the Hormuz situation could trigger asset prices. Besides geopolitics, the key focus of next week's macroeconomic calendar is on two themes: first, a flurry of statements from Federal Reserve officials coupled with the release of the Beige Book will provide policy signals to the market; second, the US March PPI released on Tuesday will be a key indicator of the extent to which energy price shocks are transmitted to the production side. At the same time, banking giants such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the first-quarter earnings season. The specific event times are as follows: Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI year-on-year and month-on-month rates; Wednesday 00:15, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsby participates in a panel discussion at the Semafor World Economic Conference; Wednesday 00:45, Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks for a working forum; Wednesday 01:00, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat; Thursday 01:40, Fed Governor Bowman delivers a speech; Thursday 02:00, the Fed releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 and the April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; Thursday 20:35, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; Thursday TBD, ECB releases minutes of its March 19 policy meeting and G20 meeting. A meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors was held. The US March PPI data released on Tuesday will be the first key report quantifying the extent to which the energy price shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict have penetrated upstream production costs. Commerzbank economists have explicitly warned that the transmission effect of energy prices to non-energy commodities "may change soon," and if the PPI exceeds expectations, it will further compress the Fed's window for interest rate cuts—and the market has almost ruled out a rate cut this year. Next week, US stocks officially enter the Q1 2026 earnings season, with major banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reporting their results first, followed by tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix. This earnings season is seen as a crucial window to examine the resilience of corporate profits, the sustainability of AI demand, and the impact of the macroeconomic environment. (Jinshi)