Trump plans to close the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran, but experts warn of difficulties in implementation and the potential for escalating retaliation.

According to Mars Finance, on April 13, US President Trump proposed a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to force Iran to make concessions in negotiations. The US Central Command stated that the blockade would target ships entering and leaving Iranian ports and had set a start date. Several security and military experts pointed out that a maritime blockade is essentially an act of war, requiring a large naval force to maintain for a long period, lacking a clear end path, making its implementation difficult and its sustainability questionable. Dana Strauer stated that this operation is difficult to accomplish alone and may be unsustainable in the medium to long term. Analysts believe this move could trigger reciprocal retaliation from Iran. Former US Chief of Naval Operations Gary Roughead warned that Iran might attack shipping in the Gulf or US military infrastructure in the Middle East, posing a risk of further escalation of the regional conflict. Furthermore, the implementation of the blockade faces complex practical problems, including whether to intercept or even sink third-country oil tankers, and how to handle energy shipments involving US allies. Mark Warner also questioned the actual effectiveness of this strategy, pointing out that Iran could still retaliate through mine laying or asymmetric means. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil shipments, and geopolitical risks have already driven oil prices significantly higher. The market generally believes that if tensions persist, they will further exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt global energy and financial markets.