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The IMF lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast, citing the Middle East conflict as a significant factor impacting current growth momentum.
PANews reported on April 14 that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report, lowering its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The report argues that the Middle East conflict has significantly impacted current global economic growth momentum. If the conflict and high oil prices persist for a longer period, global economic growth this year could fall to 2.5% or even lower. Under a "severe scenario" of continued conflict and financial market turmoil, the economic growth rate would drop to 2.0%, threatening a global recession. The IMF warned that in the worst-case scenario, a global recession is imminent. The IMF stated that the severe scenario assumes an average oil price of $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 per barrel in 2027, while the baseline scenario assumes an oil price of $82 per barrel in 2026.
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