Bitcoin's RHODL ratio has risen to its third-highest level in history, potentially indicating that a bottom has been formed.

According to a report by CoinDesk on April 17th, Mars Finance reports that Glassnode's on-chain Bitcoin metric, the RHODL ratio, is currently at 4.5, the third highest level on record. This suggests a market bottom rather than a cycle top. The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (6 months to 3 years) to short-term holders (1 day to 3 months). A rising ratio typically reflects longer holding periods and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—a dynamic that occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During Bitcoin's 50% drop over the past six months, a large amount of speculative capital has been wiped out, with wealth concentrating in the hands of long-term holders. Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than it is now twice: in 2015 (5) and 2022 (7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, suggesting that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, for the ratio to rise to a higher level, short-term holder activity typically needs to almost completely dry up, which is not yet evident under current conditions—Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25% from its February lows, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high. Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market situation is closer to a cyclical correction than a cyclical top, and the renewed dominance of long-term holders may indicate that a temporary bottom is approaching.