Analysis: 3.14% of Polymarket players contribute over 30% of the profits, while 67% of losers bear all the losses.

According to Mars Finance, citing Theblock, a new academic paper analyzing all Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 concludes that only 3.14% of accounts were defined as "skilled winners," consistently and accurately predicting short-term price movements and eventual outcomes. These skilled traders, along with market makers, contributed over 30% of the platform's total revenue. The paper also points out that only 12% of profitable traders belong to the high-level trader group, while approximately 60% of the "lucky winners" turned into losses in another set of data. Accounts categorized as unlucky or technically inept losers accounted for 67% of the total, and these accounts bore the brunt of the platform's total losses. The paper, co-authored by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung of London Business School, and Theis Ingerslev Jensen of Yale University, covers 1.72 million accounts, over 210,000 markets, and a total trading volume of approximately $13.76 billion.