The CIA has determined that Iran can withstand the blockade for three to four months, and its ballistic missile capabilities will remain intact.

According to BlockBeats, on May 7th, four sources familiar with the matter stated that a classified analysis by the CIA this week suggests that Iran can sustain itself under a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship. Despite weeks of intense US-Israeli bombing, Iran retains a considerable ballistic missile capability. One US official stated that Iran currently retains approximately 75% of its pre-war mobile launcher inventory and about 70% of its missile reserves. Evidence suggests that the Iranian regime has been able to restore and reactivate almost all underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly completed at the outbreak of the war. Another US official stated that he believes Iran's ability to withstand prolonged economic hardship is even stronger than the CIA assessment. "Iran's leadership has become more radical and determined, increasingly convinced that they can exhaust the political will of the United States while suppressing any resistance through domestic repression. It is not uncommon for similar regimes to survive for years under prolonged embargoes and purely air-based warfare." Iran is storing some of its oil on tankers that would otherwise be idle due to the blockade, while reducing oil field production to ensure wells remain operational. If Iran can smuggle oil overland, then the CIA may be underestimating Iran's economic resilience.