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Bitunix Analyst: Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls suppress interest rate cut expectations; BTC continues to test the $80,000 liquidity level.
According to BlockBeats, on May 11th, the US added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 62,000. The previous figure was also revised upwards to 185,000, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient. Although consumer confidence fell to a historic low in May, one-year inflation expectations unexpectedly declined, fueling market expectations of an "economic slowdown but sticky inflation."
Federal Reserve officials have also maintained a wait-and-see attitude recently. Goolsby believes the job market remains quite stable, but inflation remains unsatisfactory; Lagarde admitted that the central bank is currently facing a dilemma between "acting too early and acting too late." The market is now beginning to repric the possibility of "high interest rates lasting longer."
Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiations have not yet achieved a substantial breakthrough. Iran has formally rejected the US proposal, but the two sides continue to communicate through Pakistan, and the core of the negotiations is shifting towards maritime security and a ceasefire framework. The Strait of Hormuz has recently shown signs of resuming shipping, with Qatari LNG carriers passing through for the first time in about 70 days, indicating that market concerns about a complete blockade have eased.
In the crypto market, looking at the liquidation map, the $80,000 level remains a key short-term support/resistance level for BTC, with significant long liquidity accumulating. However, a large short liquidation zone is visible around $83,000. Overall, the market is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with funds awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts.
Regarding derivatives data, the BTC OI (On-Index Interest) has continued its slight decline to 25.6B, indicating that leveraged funds are cooling down and short-term buying interest is limited. While funding rates haven't turned positive, short-selling pressure has eased, suggesting that the market is currently waiting for further clarity on macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments before deciding on its next direction.
免责声明:以上内容仅为作者观点,不代表 711BTC 的任何立场,不构成与 711BTC 相关的任何投资建议。
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