Wintermute: This surge was clearly driven by leverage, with a sharp increase in open interest accompanied by a decrease in spot trading volume.

Mars Finance reported on May 12th that Wintermute released its weekly market summary, stating that US stocks continued their strong performance, recording their sixth consecutive week of gains. The Nasdaq rose 4.5%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, both hitting record highs. Small-cap stocks and tech giants both performed strongly. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, demonstrating the resilience of the labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly decreased. Iran-US negotiations returned to square one, with Trump directly rejecting Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions waivers. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation. With Powell's term ending and Warsh taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot is attracting much attention. In the crypto asset market, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of around $83,000, and for the first time above the 200-day moving average (the first time in seven months). However, this surge was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in a single month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funds still provide support, with ETFs seeing net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low. However, short-term risks are high—the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if the short squeeze ends but spot trading fails to follow suit, Bitcoin's price could fall rapidly. Altcoin are shifting towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing power sectors performing particularly well. Overall, the crypto market needs to quickly verify whether this rebound marks the start of a genuine bull market: currently, it is mainly driven by the combined effects of the stock market and leverage. If rising CPI or a change in Federal Reserve leadership brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will be a key confirmation signal.