US Treasury yields surged across the board; even before Warsh took office, the bond market saw a pre-inauguration rate hike.

According to Mars Finance, on May 15th, before the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh officially took office, the US Treasury market saw a significant upward trend, with the overall yield curve rising and market expectations for interest rate paths tightening considerably. Data shows that the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note rose to 4.065%, a new high since March 2025; the 10-year yield rose to 4.530%, a high since May 2025; and the 30-year yield broke through 5.071%, a new high since July 2025, with both short- and long-term interest rates rising simultaneously. Analysts pointed out that short-term interest rates are already above the upper limit of the Fed's target interest rate range, indicating that the market is "tightening financial conditions in advance" through rising yields. Some institutions describe this as a "bond market vigilante" action, indirectly constraining policy space by raising financing costs. The market generally believes that with persistent inflationary pressures, rising energy prices, and geopolitical conflicts, US inflation is becoming more sticky, further delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. CME interest rate futures indicate that maintaining the current interest rate level this year remains the baseline scenario, while the probability of a rate hike is also increasing. Meanwhile, US consumer spending is significantly impacted by rising oil prices, with CPI approaching 4%, further weakening the conditions for looser monetary policy. Analysts believe that the divergence between the bond market and policy expectations is widening, and the Fed's new policy cycle may already be subject to "reverse constraints" from the market interest rate environment before it even officially begins.