How should the future of human civilization be valued? SpaceX's on-chain pricing is significantly higher than that of traditional financial institutions.
According to BlockBeats, on May 18th, SpaceX, Elon Musk's space exploration company, is nearing its Nasdaq listing, with a target pricing date of June 11th and a listing date of June 12th. Musk emphasized that he will not sell personal shares and will maintain absolute control of the company through a super voting rights structure.
At the World Economic Forum earlier this year, Musk discussed SpaceX's vision, stating that the goal of SpaceX was to maximize the future of human civilization. He emphasized the need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished, as humanity may be a small candle in a vast darkness. SpaceX is dedicated to advancing rocket technology to enable humanity to extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, reaching the Moon, Mars, and ultimately other star systems. We should always consider consciousness and the unknown darkness as unstable and delicate. Humanity is uncertain about the existence of extraterrestrial life, so the bottom line is to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare, perhaps unique to us. This is why enabling life to survive on multiple planets becomes particularly important, so that consciousness can continue in the event of natural disasters or man-made catastrophes on Earth. This is SpaceX's purpose.
Regarding the valuation of "the future of human civilization," some of the institutions that have given predictions are as follows:
Cathie Wood's Cathie Wood Invest gives a reasonable valuation of $1.75 trillion for the IPO, with a long-term forecast of approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030: the merger of Starlink, the launch business, and xAI supports this valuation, and $1.75 trillion is credible.
The renowned independent research firm Morningstar values Starlink at $1.5 trillion: SpaceX is expensive and risky, but not unreasonable. If Starship commercializes as planned, this valuation would place it in the 75th-90th percentile among high-growth peers, requiring top-tier confidence in Starlink's long-term growth.
Well-known private equity firm PitchBook gives a fair valuation of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion: close to 95 times 2025 revenue multiple, relying on the expected potential of Starship and future new businesses rather than the current financial situation; around $1.5 trillion may be close to the reasonable upper limit, traditional valuation methods are not fully applicable, and SpaceX's unique monopoly position supports its high valuation.
The Hyperliquid ecosystem trading platform (SPCX) announced the listing of SpaceX this morning. As of press time, SPCX is trading at $207, corresponding to a valuation of $2.46 trillion, significantly higher than traditional institutions. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, there is a 71% probability that SpaceX's market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion on its first day of trading. On-chain market predictions are bolder and more optimistic about SpaceX's IPO performance than traditional institutions, predicting a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion.
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