Opinion: The "May curse" may reappear in a US midterm election year; analysts warn of a significant risk of Bitcoin price decline.

According to Mars Finance, on May 18th, in the past two cryptocurrency bear markets, May of the US midterm election years was accompanied by a significant drop in Bitcoin: in May 2018, Bitcoin fell from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000; in May 2022, it plummeted from about $40,000 to $28,500, and then further declined towards $20,000. With 2026 also a bear market cycle and coinciding with a US midterm election year, concerns about a repeat of this historical pattern are rising. Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar stated last Sunday, "This is the cruelest pattern in Bitcoin's history. Nobody wants to hear it, but the pattern is too perfect. Bitcoin always crashes in midterm election years." He believes that even with current positive factors such as the progress of the CLARITY Act, the Trump administration's positive signals regarding crypto policies, and a potential US-China trade agreement, these are insufficient to completely alter the historical cycle. In his view, if market sentiment deteriorates further, the price of Bitcoin could even fall to around $33,000. Meanwhile, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also expressed caution about the market outlook. He stated that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $78,000, the probability of the market entering a new round of "capitulation selling" will significantly increase, and bearish forces are already beginning to emerge. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, market leverage contraction, and declining risk appetite, Bitcoin's short-term price movement may still face considerable pressure.