As the market begins to discuss "re-raising interest rates," BTC and oil prices are becoming key indicators of global risk sentiment.

According to Mars Finance, on May 21st, the market began to accept the reality that "high interest rates may be extended again or even raised again." The latest FOMC meeting minutes showed that the consensus within the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative stance has rapidly weakened, with several officials beginning to believe that if inflation continues to exceed the target, a tightening of policy cannot be ruled out. The market has also adjusted its expectations accordingly, with federal funds rate futures already reflecting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year. The core reason behind this remains the continued impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and global supply chains. Although Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations are nearing their final stage, the differences between the US and Israel regarding "whether to continue striking Iran" are widening. Trump favors ending the conflict with an agreement, while Netanyahu still hopes to further weaken Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. The market is concerned that even if negotiations make brief progress, as long as the Strait of Hormuz cannot fully return to normal operation, the risks to oil prices and shipping will be difficult to truly alleviate. At the same time, the US energy market itself is beginning to experience structural pressure. Due to refineries shifting heavily to the production of high-profit jet fuel, US gasoline inventories are declining rapidly, and energy costs are gradually being passed on from crude oil to end-consumer and financial markets. This is also one of the key reasons for the recent continuous rise in long-term US Treasury yields, representing the market's repricing of the potential long-term coexistence of "high energy prices + high interest rates." In the crypto market, BTC is still maintaining high-level fluctuations in the short term, but it is now clearly dominated by macroeconomic interest rates and risk sentiment. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there is a large amount of short liquidity around $78,000 to $78,300, and the market is still testing the resistance of short positions above; while the $75,400 to $75,800 area is the main liquidation zone for long positions. At this stage, BTC is no longer just a crypto asset, but is gradually becoming a synchronized indicator of global liquidity and risk appetite. If the situation in the Middle East or US Treasury yields spiral out of control again, market volatility could amplify rapidly.