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来源Blockbeats

A well-known US stock market KOL warns of four potential risks in the AI investment boom; a low PE ratio does not guarantee structural stability.

BlockBeats reported on June 3rd that US stock market KOL Herman Jin (@ShanghaoJin) published a detailed analysis of four potential risks amidst the AI investment boom: seemingly perfect micro-company levels can lead to overconfidence; abundant liquidity but limited central bank tools; uncontrolled semiconductor supply chains driving up capital expenditure costs; and slowing revenue growth from models like Anthropic/OpenAI potentially shaking hyperscalers' capital expenditure expectations. The author points out that the demand risk from AI models (Anthropic/OpenAI) is the most noteworthy and intuitive indicator. While the current AI bull market appears to have low PE ratios and low bubbles, in reality, model revenue must maintain high-speed growth to justify the massive capital expenditures of hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, etc.). Once model revenue growth slows, "intelligence declines," or computing bottlenecks lead to token quality/efficiency issues, market expectations for the sustainability of capital expenditure returns will waver. Once expectations waver, it will directly puncture the "lifeblood" of this bull market, causing the low PE bubble to instantly shift from a "strong positive feedback" to a panic sell-off. At the same time, "all valuations that did not fall despite previous negative news and were supported by confidence will be reset in one go."
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