Analysis: The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Friday has been cleared; the market is now focused on whether buying interest can return on Monday to rebuild the market structure.

According to Mars Finance, on June 7th, former hedge fund analyst Alphatica pointed out in his weekend outlook that SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) closed at $737.55 on Friday, down 2.6% for the day. However, Friday's options expiration cleared away the strongest accelerating factor driving the concentrated sell-off—the negative gamma (the price sensitivity that market makers need to hedge due to holding options) of -$871 million at the strike price of $740 had returned to zero with the expiration. The total negative GEX (gamma exposure, an indicator that measures whether market makers' hedging behavior buffers or amplifies volatility) decreased from an intraday peak of -$1.847 billion to -$868 million. The most intense sell-off has disappeared, and the market has switched from "concentrated violent sell-off" to "distributed pressure." Several key indicators have simultaneously turned bearish: the composite score has entered bearish territory for the first time (-22.9), the implied volatility (IV) skewness has reached +5.35%, the highest in this cycle, and put option premiums are significant, with 65% coming from the put side. Single-day put premiums reached $3 billion, ending the previous dominance of call options during the sell-off. However, a catalyst for a rebound exists simultaneously: the Vanna reading (a measure of how changes in implied volatility affect market makers' Delta hedging demand; a positive value means market makers must buy stocks when IV declines) reached +190,800, the strongest in the entire cycle. If IV falls from the current 15.7%, it will trigger mechanical buying by traders. Alphatica points out that Monday will determine two scenarios—if institutional restructuring leads to a return of buying in the afternoon, this is still a recoverable amplified sell-off; if restructuring fails and the $724 floor is breached, the structural characteristics have changed, and the market logic before June 18th needs to be reassessed.