Analysis: On-chain data releases bearish signals; Bitcoin's rebound faces continued selling pressure.

According to a recent Odaily by Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, falling to a low of $59,200 on June 5th, a cumulative pullback of 53% from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline was primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, deleveraging in derivatives, and continued pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. Currently, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remains above 4.45%, further cooling market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. On-chain and fund flow data show that the current market is closer to an "allocation phase" than a "panic sell-off." The cumulative volume difference (CVD) in the spot market has turned significantly negative after a strong accumulation in April and May, indicating that recent buyers are continuously exiting the market. At the same time, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning that many new investors are currently experiencing unrealized losses, creating strong selling pressure for any subsequent rebound. As prices gradually approach the overall realized cost basis of approximately $53,900, the market's tendency to reduce positions during rebounds is becoming increasingly apparent. At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real income. The job market is robust, with job openings reaching a near two-year high and job creation consistently exceeding the population replacement rate. The healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure services sectors are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue to outpace wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and creating a more complex balance for the Federal Reserve in balancing employment and inflation control. The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Rising energy prices and geopolitical risks have fueled continued inflation expectations, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasury bonds higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, leading investors to reassess their risk asset allocation. Bitcoin has been particularly affected, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since their inception. The market has also shifted from betting on interest rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "high interest rates lasting longer." Bitfinex Alpha believes that, at this stage, the trend of real yields has become the most important variable influencing the performance of both traditional financial markets and digital asset markets. Despite short-term pressures, the institutionalization process continues. The report points out that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signifies the further integration of tokenized infrastructure into the traditional financial system. Simultaneously, the US GENIUS Act is advancing the regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under similar compliance requirements as traditional financial institutions. The institutional market for Bitcoin is also maturing; both ETF outflows and Strategy's balance sheet adjustments resemble routine asset allocation rather than a decline in institutional confidence. Overall, digital assets are gradually being absorbed into the mainstream financial system and are influenced by the same macroeconomic environment, regulatory framework, and capital allocation logic as traditional assets.