US May CPI may return to the "4" range, with rising energy prices boosting expectations of an interest rate hike this year.

According to Mars Finance, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May's CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time on June 10th. The market widely expects May's CPI to rise 0.5% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year. If this expectation materializes, it will be the first time since May 2023 that the U.S. CPI has climbed back above 4%, reaching its highest level since April 2023. Regarding core CPI, the market expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.9% year-on-year increase in May. A significant factor contributing to this round of inflation is considered to be the rapid rise in energy prices against the backdrop of the Iran conflict. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that recent price increases are primarily attributed to government policies, including the U.S.-Iran war. He pointed out that rising gasoline and diesel prices will push up the prices of goods transported, from groceries to Amazon packages, and airlines have already passed on higher aviation fuel costs to passengers. Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders, stated that current price pressures are no longer limited to the energy sector but also involve factors such as money supply and AI. She believes that even if the conflict is resolved quickly, oil prices may not return to previous lows because production has already been disrupted. For the Federal Reserve, the upcoming CPI and subsequent PPI data will be crucial references before the June policy meeting. Bond traders have recently increased their bets on interest rate hikes, with some believing the Fed may act as early as September. If the May CPI significantly exceeds expectations, especially if the range of increase widens further, it could strengthen the Fed's policy case for raising interest rates this year.