Institutional Outlook for the Bank of Japan's Decision: A rate hike is a certainty, but unlikely to stem the yen's decline; halting the tapering of bond purchases may be on the agenda.

According to Mars Finance, on June 16th, regarding the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision, the market largely agrees on a rate hike. Some institutions also believe the BOJ will conduct a mid-term review of its bond-buying program at this meeting. The views of major institutions are summarized below: Goldman Sachs: Expects the BOJ to raise interest rates at this meeting, which is in line with consensus and market pricing. The central bank will maintain a pace of approximately one rate hike every six months thereafter. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the BOJ to raise interest rates this week, with another rate hike later this year. Given that the 25 basis point rate hike has been fully priced in by the market, this move alone is unlikely to reverse the yen's depreciation trend. Former BOJ Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda: Expects the BOJ to raise interest rates at this meeting. The US-Iran peace agreement is not expected to change the expectation of two rate hikes this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is expected to reiterate the central bank's determination to continue raising interest rates, but will avoid giving a clear hint about the timing of the next rate hike. QT Forecast: Mizuho Bank: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to conduct a mid-term review of its bond-buying tapering program at this meeting, potentially maintaining the current tapering plan until January to March next year; from April to June and beyond, it may suspend or slow the reduction in monthly bond purchases. Deutsche Securities: If the BOJ decides to stop tapering its monthly bond purchases, it must provide a full explanation. If the BOJ simultaneously decides to raise interest rates and stop tapering its bond purchases, regardless of its true intentions, the market and the public may interpret it as a "political deal" reached with the government. If the BOJ stops tapering its monthly bond purchases, the impact on liquidity and the overall market will be neutral to moderately positive, especially in preventing a sharp tightening of liquidity.