The global interest rate cut cycle has ended: the number of central banks raising and cutting rates was equal in May, the first time since the beginning of 2021.

According to Mars Finance, on June 21st, global monetary policy is reaching a turning point. Data shows that among the 52 central banks included in the statistics, the number of institutions raising and lowering interest rates in May was 26 each, the first time in about two years that they have been evenly matched. Previously, the number of central banks lowering rates consistently exceeded the number raising rates. The last time this balance was achieved was in early 2021, followed by a three-year tightening policy cycle. This indicator peaked in mid-2022, when the number of central banks raising rates exceeded the number lowering rates by 28. Last week, the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate hike to 2.25%, the first rate hike since September 2023; this Tuesday, the Bank of Japan also raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the highest rate level since 1995. A new round of global tightening appears to be underway.