As the yen nears a 38-year low, Japanese authorities have adopted a "tactical silence," raising market concerns about a potential flash intervention.

According to Mars Finance, on June 22, the Japanese yen touched around 161.7 against the US dollar on Monday, just a step away from its lowest point since 1986 at 161.96. Faced with continued depreciation, Japanese authorities unusually remained silent, which the market widely believes is a prelude to a "surprise attack" on short sellers. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama only briefly mentioned on Monday that he would "respond to exchange rate fluctuations as appropriate," a significantly softened tone. Finance Minister Jun Mimura, considered a key signal of intervention, has been publicly silent since early May—he issued a "final warning" before intervention at the end of April. According to sources, because the previous overly transparent warnings gave speculators an opportunity to exit early, the authorities are intentionally shifting to a surprise intervention mode to maximize its effectiveness. The chief foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that under the cover of a lack of urgency in official rhetoric, a sudden intervention will be more lethal. The latest CFTC data shows that net short positions in the Japanese yen have surged to 145,818 contracts, a new high since July 2024, indicating a high concentration of speculative forces. Regarding inflationary pressures, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned the Diet on Monday that there is a risk that price increases could deviate significantly from the 2% target, and that the risk of the central bank acting too late should not be ignored if the yen's continued depreciation pushes up import costs. Analysts point out that current market positions are excessively stretched and complacent due to official silence; once intervention begins, the effects will be amplified exponentially.