Trump's verbal pressure is suppressing oil prices, and the market warns that a supply-demand gap could push oil prices towards $135.

According to Mars Finance, on June 22, a veteran energy trader warned that despite the Trump administration's continued signals of peace and de-escalation, political rhetoric can no longer mask the potential supply gap of approximately 6 to 8 million barrels per day in the global crude oil market. If inventory depletion continues, oil prices could experience a retaliatory surge, potentially even reaching $135 per barrel. Dan Dicker, an energy trader with 25 years of experience, pointed out that US President Trump's frequent public statements have influenced market expectations, causing oil prices to fail to reflect the true supply and demand imbalance in the short term. He stated that current prices are driven more by sentiment and policy signals than by fundamentals. Since the escalation of the US-Israel conflict and its impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply has been disrupted, with the market primarily relying on inventory reduction. Dicker stated that if supply recovery falls short of expectations, the market could face significant shocks. Despite tight fundamentals, international oil prices have remained relatively stable recently. On June 22, WTI crude oil was around $75 per barrel, and Brent crude was around $79 per barrel, significantly lower than the highs at the beginning of the conflict. Analysts believe the price decline is related to market expectations of a 60-day peace roadmap between the US and Iran, but traders are generally cautious about the sustainability of the agreement, and short positions have gradually accumulated within the recent price range. Dicker points out that current oil prices have clearly deviated from supply and demand realities, and policy rhetoric is amplifying market volatility. He emphasizes that given the continued uncertainty surrounding passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the market may still be under-pricing the risk premium.