SemiAnalysis: AI demand is driving up the price of basic chips, and the cost per unit of computing power is rising.

According to Mars Finance, on June 23, SemiAnalysis, an independent research institution specializing in semiconductors and AI, published an article stating that in the short term, AI demand is outpacing the cost reduction driven by Moore's Law. Between 2001 and 2020, Moore's Law drove down the import prices of computers and semiconductors by 52%. However, with the surge in AI demand, the import prices of computers and semiconductors rose by 3.6% in May, and by 14.4% year-on-year. This increase is far from historical records; simply describing it as "the fastest in history" is insufficient. Import prices are hedonic adjusted, meaning they already factor in improvements in chip speed and capacity. Therefore, under Moore's Law, these prices typically decrease over time. However, the current genuine chip shortage is driving up these hedonic adjusted prices, implying that the market is paying higher prices per unit of computing power, not just higher prices for better chips. Import prices are calculated before tariffs, so these price increases reflect the base price before tariffs were imposed, not the result after the tariffs were added.