Bitcoin fell below $63,000, possibly due to continuous outflows from ETFs and the expiration of $10.6 billion in options, which weighed on the market.

According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin further declined towards $62,000 on Tuesday, continuing its weak and volatile trend amid the sixth consecutive week of outflows from spot ETFs, a hawkish shift in macroeconomic interest rate expectations, and pressure from quarter-end option expirations. Ethereum also fell below $1,700 on the same day, with both BTC and ETH having retreated nearly 20% in the past 30 days. Market pressure this week stemmed primarily from two factors. First, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June 18 FOMC meeting, but the statement significantly reduced dovish language, and the dot plot shifted from hinting at rate cuts to hinting at rate hikes. Nine of the 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike this year, with the probability of a December rate hike significantly higher than a month ago. Second, geopolitical risks have resurfaced and are disrupting the market. Previously, expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire had pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but the situation deteriorated during the signing ceremony on June 19, with Iran withdrawing from negotiations. Because the crypto market trades 24/7, Bitcoin was the first to reflect this shock. Furthermore, the expiration of approximately $10.6 billion in Deribit options on June 26th exacerbated the wait-and-see sentiment at the end of the quarter. Analysts believe that current leverage has been largely cleared, and market positioning is defensive, but the next direction still depends on Thursday's PCE inflation data and whether spot ETF inflows can return to positive territory.