Wall Street consensus converges: 8000 points for the S&P 500 by the end of the year becomes a new psychological anchor, with bulls and conservatives raising their forecasts in tandem.

According to Mars Finance, on June 26th, the divergence on Wall Street regarding the year-end target for US stocks is narrowing, with 8,000 points for the S&P 500 becoming a new psychological anchor. Fundstrat raised its year-end target from 7,700 to 8,000; Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Societe Generale also hovered around the same level. Goldman Sachs previously raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 7,600 to 8,000, citing continued earnings growth and AI investment as supporting the index, rather than simply relying on valuation expansion. More conservative investors are also raising their targets. JPMorgan Chase raised its target from 7,600 to 7,800; Barclays and Stifel also adjusted their year-end targets to 7,800. Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 earnings per share forecast to $337 from $321, and gave a target of 8,800 points for 2027. The common rationale is: upward revisions to corporate earnings, AI capital expenditure, improved visibility of technology earnings, and easing geopolitical risks. However, this consensus does not equate to risk-free. JPMorgan Chase also warned that momentum stocks, semiconductors, memory stocks, and second- and third-tier AI concept stocks are already crowded, and low-quality and speculative growth stocks may experience sharp declines. It prefers a "quality growth + low volatility" barbell portfolio.