"White-haired stock market guru" Serenity: Semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks are worsening, and packaging and testing manufacturers are raising prices.

According to Odaily Odaily, Serenity, a well-known stock market guru, summarized recent semiconductor industry developments on the X platform, stating that multiple signs indicate a tightening semiconductor supply chain. Citing institutional and industry sources, he pointed out that Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 shipment forecast for Chinese humanoid robots from 14,000 and 28,000 units at the beginning of the year to 50,000 units; probe cards and test sockets are expected to see price increases due to rising precious metal prices and a shortage of test pin capacity; and Yageo has raised prices for products such as MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors. In addition, Serenity stated that Meta's next-generation Vistara architecture will use DDR4 memory combined with CXL expansion; OpenAI has reportedly made a breakthrough in inference optimization, halving inference costs and reducing GPU requirements; and after Samsung signed long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with major US technology customers, MLCCs have also begun to adopt the long-term agreement supply model. The report also cited Digitimes, stating that OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Testing and Assembly) vendors have begun raising prices, and that memory and IC packaging and testing capacity has become a major bottleneck in the semiconductor supply chain.