Data: Bitcoin's rebound has begun, but further confirmation is needed to break through $66,000.
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Wintermute: The recent Bitcoin price movement is a rebound and correction, not a structural shift in the market.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Decrypt, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin's recent nearly 10% rebound is a "textbook rally" rather than a structural market shift, and the company remains cautious. Wintermute pointed out that the easing of the macro environment, the Fed's dovish stance, and positive news regarding Ethereum and institutional adoption are the three factors driving the rebound, sufficient to explain the current market movement without needing a larger narrative. The company believes the market may continue to "rise slightly." However, Wintermute stated that a single data point does not constitute a trend, and more sustained inflows are needed to confirm a structural shift; until broader capital flows truly reverse, the current movement is merely a correction.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
Bitcoin defied the trend and broke through $64,000; "Moji" took the opportunity to add to his long positions, and his weekly profit has exceeded $400,000.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Bitcoin initially fell but then rebounded overnight following the negative news of Strategy's historic sell-off of 3588 BTC, briefly breaking through $64,000 this morning and leading a rebound in major cryptocurrencies. According to HTX market data, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $64,007.31, up 0.81% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum was trading at $1797, up 0.51% in the last 24 hours. Furthermore, according to HyperInsight monitoring, "Maji" has been continuously adding to his positions during the market rebound, and his Ethereum long positions have now reached $17.08 million, with a liquidation price of $1765.32. However, amidst the strong market rebound, Maji has already made over $400,000 in profit in the past week.
As expectations for a Fed rate hike cool, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold continue their rebound.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that inflation risks were easing, the market bet that the Fed would postpone further interest rate hikes, causing Bitcoin, gold, and silver to rise. Meanwhile, the US dollar is currently stable, with traders expecting it to remain strong ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, awaiting further clues about monetary policy. According to HTX market data, as of press time, the spot price of Bitcoin was $63,640.1, up 0.93% in the last 24 hours; the spot price of Ethereum was $1,786.6, up 0.4% in the last 24 hours. According to Bitget market data, the spot price of gold was $4,172.2, up 1.21% in the last 24 hours.
Bloomberg analysts: June ETF market saw record-breaking data, with both inflows and new product launches exceeding expectations.
PANews reported on July 5th that Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, analyzed that the ETF market experienced a "June SANITY" level performance in June, with many indicators approaching or breaking historical records. Data shows that net inflows into ETFs reached $191 billion that month, the second-highest monthly level on record, averaging approximately $9 billion per day, covering about 2,700 different funds. At the same time, the number of new ETF products launched in June reached 214, approximately 10 per day, significantly breaking historical records. Furthermore, the total trading volume of ETFs in June reached $7 trillion, the second-highest level on record. Eric Balchunas concluded that this series of data reflects a comprehensive explosion in the ETF market in terms of inflows, new product launches, and trading activity.