Kalshi ordered to stop broad range of prediction markets in Washington
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The World Cup fuels a boom in prediction markets: Polymarket trading surges, Kalshi open interest hits a new high.
PANews reported on June 24th that, according to The Block, prediction market platform Polymarket saw its "Soccer" betting volume exceed $2 billion in the first 10 days after the start of the World Cup, an increase of approximately 300% compared to the previous 10 days. The daily average volume for this category rose from $53 million to approximately $220 million. During the same period, compliant prediction platform Kalshi's aggregated open interest surpassed $1.16 billion for the first time last week, representing a year-to-date increase of approximately 350%. The report points out that Polymarket's overall open interest remained relatively stable during the World Cup, while Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC and supporting direct USD deposits, is attracting more US institutions and high-net-worth individuals to hold long-term positions. Its positioning directly competes with compliant sports betting platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kalshi's trading volume hit a record high of $9.4 billion in June, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion. Data shows that the World Cup has become the main catalyst for the growth in prediction market trading. As this World Cup expands to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has increased, driving active trading in single-match contracts. For example, the round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket. However, the rapid increase in trading volume has also further fueled regulatory controversy. Several US states continue to advocate that sports event contracts should be subject to betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event-based contracts may fall under the existing regulatory scope of binary options. Analysts believe that the World Cup demonstrated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or betting remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.
Research: Approximately 60% of Polymarket's first World Cup bettors had no prior experience with blockchain, making prediction markets a new gateway to crypto.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Cointelegraph, a study of Polymarket's 857,000 active users revealed that approximately 60% of first-time bettors during the World Cup had never previously interacted with blockchain protocols. Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, stated that prediction markets have changed the traditional logic for crypto users to get on board—users no longer need to understand blockchain technology beforehand, but participate directly because they have opinions on real-world events. This makes prediction markets a new entry point for some users into the crypto space. Data shows that Polymarket's World Cup champion contracts have exceeded $3.1 billion in trading volume, with sports contracts contributing over $4.9 billion in trading volume on Polymarket in the past 30 days, and reaching $8.5 billion on Kalshi, becoming the most significant trading category on both platforms.
CZ: Prediction markets help with price discovery; Hyperliquid validates new market demand.
According to Mars Finance, on June 20th, Binance founder CZ participated in the Galaxy Brains podcast and was interviewed by Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy. CZ stated that prediction markets are a clever and valuable invention. While not new, any tool that provides price discovery and liquidity is a good thing. He believes that prediction markets are generally more accurate than other prediction methods when real money is involved, because those with better judgment will enter the relevant market to trade. He sees it as a good thing that Polymarket and Kalshi obtained licenses in the US and hopes that many prediction market projects in the crypto industry will operate responsibly. Regarding Hyperliquid, CZ stated that it proved a new market demand that had not been previously validated, with a small but highly capable team and good technological innovation. However, based on his own experience, he would not choose Hyperliquid's current KYC-less operating model. If traditional financial institutions like CME launch crypto perpetual contracts in the US, it will serve the US institutional market that Binance Global has never served. More platforms offering crypto derivatives trading is a good thing, and improved liquidity is itself the best protection for users. Previously, CZ revealed that YZI Labs' current investment focus is roughly 70% on crypto, 20% on AI, and 10% on biotechnology. He hopes YZI Labs will focus more on impact, not just financial returns. The psychological reward from biotechnology investments is more direct, as these technologies may help a large number of people in the future.
City of Baltimore goes after prediction markets for sports betting
The city’s complaint over gambling laws and deceptive trade practices included Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase as partners with prediction market platform Kalshi.
*ROBINHOOD, https://t.co/SfkkT7qZuo EYE PREDICTION-MARKETS PARTNERSHIP: WSJ: BBG
AggrNews News, *Robinhood, HTTPS://T.CO/SFKKT7QZUO Eye PREDICTION-MARKETS PARTNERSHIP: WSJ: BBG