Bitcoin could bottom in October, altcoins are ‘basically dead,’ Swan CEO says
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Cantor Fitzgerald: Bitcoin cycle suggests the market may have bottomed out in the coming months.
PANews reported on July 2nd, citing CoinDesk, that Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald released a report stating that the crypto market is entering the final stage of its current bear market cycle. Analysts pointed out that as of June 10th, Bitcoin had been 252 days away from its 2025 high, a drop of approximately 51%. In the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin bottomed out on average 384 days after its peak. If history repeats itself, this round of decline may bottom out around the end of October. The report cautions that this model is not a precise timing tool, and macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks remain. However, the reflexive nature of the crypto market means that historical cycles may be self-reinforcing.
Bitwise Europe Research Head: BTC is likely to bottom out before October, as widely expected by the market.
According to Odaily, André Dragosch, Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise, July appears to be a turning point for BTC, potentially shifting it from a bear market to a bull market. He believes the Federal Reserve might react dovishly if semiconductor stocks reverse sharply from current levels. His base case prediction is that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out before the widely expected October low.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
StarkWare CEO proposes a 4% annual inflation rate for Bitcoin instead of the 21 million coin cap.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Cointelegraph, StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson posted on the X platform proposing to replace the current hard cap of 21 million Bitcoins with a 4% annual issuance rate. He believes the current hard cap is "unreasonable" because private keys will be lost over time, "and when time approaches infinity, all private keys will be lost." Ledger estimates that approximately 4 million Bitcoins have already been permanently lost. Ben-Sasson stated that a 4% annual issuance rate roughly matches the global population growth rate. This proposal has sparked strong opposition from the community. Opponents argue that the fixed cap is the core value of Bitcoin, and that Bitcoin can be divided into 2.1 quadrillion satoshis, which is sufficient to address the issue of declining available supply.
Analysis: Bitcoin's 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, historically corresponding to multiple bear market bottoms.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, data from CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% year-to-date, with its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio briefly dropping to around -21, its lowest level since the end of 2022, and currently remaining close to -20. The Sharpe Ratio measures an asset's risk-adjusted return. A negative value means investors are taking on higher volatility risk, but the actual return is lower than that of risk-free assets (such as 10-year US Treasury bonds). Given the current US Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this indicator reflects a significant deterioration in Bitcoin's risk-return performance over the past year. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, a Sharpe Ratio falling to such an extreme negative value often indicates that market selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Similar levels have appeared near the bottoms of the bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, subsequently accompanied by the start of a new upward cycle for Bitcoin.
10x Research: Bitcoin options trading volume has fallen to $3.5 billion since October.
According to Foresight News , 10x Research tweeted that Bitcoin options trading volume has fallen from $8 billion to $3.5 billion since October. They also predict that options trading volume may continue to decline in the future.