K33: The Golden Week and the US government shutdown may lead to insufficient market liquidity and the risk of abnormal price fluctuations

On October 1st, crypto market research firm K33 Research stated in its latest report that China began its National Day Golden Week holiday, while Washington was embroiled in a partial government shutdown. While thin liquidity in Asian markets typically signals a subdued start to the month for the world's largest cryptocurrency, the delayed economic data caused by the US government shutdown could break this pattern and trigger market volatility. K33 data shows that the first week of October historically has seen flat or negative returns (although the 2021 surge was a notable exception), with volatility often compressing to local lows during this period. Analysts point out that the Golden Week holiday only partially explains the light trading volume; in fact, August to mid-October is historically the period with the lowest price volatility of the year. However, the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop complicates matters further: the US federal government entered a partial shutdown at 12:01 AM ET on Wednesday, suspending many non-essential federal services, forcing workers to take unpaid leave, and delaying the release of key data such as employment and inflation. Lunde warned that combined with potentially thin Asian capital flows, order book depth could deteriorate, exposing traders to the risk of "abnormal price volatility" during the overlapping trading sessions in early October. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde stated that Bitcoin remains volatile, with CME open interest falling to a five-month low, funding rates hovering below neutral, and options traders still favoring bearish positions. He warned that the high leverage of perpetual swaps makes the market vulnerable to volatility spikes when positions are liquidated.