Analysis: BTC has approached the bull-bear boundary three times in this round but has never fallen below it. The current fair price of BTC is $97,000.

Mars Finance reported on October 19th that on-chain analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's fair price is the average of the historical cumulative value of mean reversion (MVRV). If the market valuation level (MVRV) is at its historical average, then the price of Bitcoin should be around this level. Therefore, the fair price is considered a "mean reversion center." Over the past decade, in the past three cycles of Bitcoin, the fair price (blue line) has almost always served as the dividing line between bull and bear cycles. After the bull market began, even if there was a pullback, BTC would likely not fall below the blue line; each time its value returned, it would trigger strong buying. In this cycle, BTC has been trading above the fair price for nearly two years. During this period, it came close to the blue line three times: after the ETF approval, when "good news turned into bad news"; the unwinding of Japanese yen carry trades in August 2025; and the tariff crisis in April 2026. However, it has never fallen below the fair price. Under the bull market, a return to the fair price is the optimal buying point. The blue line currently stands at $97,000. If traders believe the bull market remains strong, buying BTC near $97,000 would be highly cost-effective. If users believe the market has already entered a bear market, they can wait for a deeper bear market, potentially offering opportunities to pick up bargains below $55,000. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.