Analysis: Bitcoin is suppressed by the short-term cost line, and the increase in capital inflows indicates that the bull-bear game is intensifying

On September 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy published an article emphasizing the potential for future market speculation stemming from the growth of stablecoin balances on Binance. BTC hit a high of $112,575 this morning before encountering resistance, demonstrating the pressure of the short-term average cost of holdings at $112,700. This also validates the validity of analyzing the market from the perspective of short-term holder sentiment and holding mentality. The failure to break through resistance doesn't signal the end of the upward trend; there's still room for speculation. Since BTC entered a correction on August 13th, Binance's major stablecoin balances (USDT + USDC) have seen rapid and substantial growth. From August 13th to September 3rd, the net increase was $4.9 billion, far exceeding the stablecoin balance growth seen during the same time periods after BTC entered a correction in August 2024 ($3.4 billion) and March 2025 ($2.8 billion). The largest daily inflows occurred on the following days: August 14, 2025: Net increase of $1.83 billion; August 22, 2025: Net increase of $1.72 billion; August 26, 2025: Net increase of $760 million; August 28, 2025: Net increase of $680 million; After deducting the increase in funds from Binance's wealth management program, the net increase still amounts to $3.6 billion. Currently, overall sentiment in both spot and derivatives markets is bearish, but even in weak markets, funds are still entering the market, waiting for opportunities or making phased investments. This is very similar to the fund flows during the relative bottoming out periods in August 2024 and March 2025. While this does not mean a market reversal is imminent, it does indicate that a bull-bear game is still possible. This sharing is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice.