Analysis: The recent pullback in the crypto market was caused by weakening Asian macroeconomic conditions and panic triggered by Strategy's comments.
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Crypto Market Preview This Week: Fed Meeting Minutes to be Released, SpaceX to be Included in Nasdaq 100 Index
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, the crypto market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US economic data, and several crypto industry events this week. The macro environment and on-chain dynamics may jointly influence the price movements of digital assets. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 9th (Beijing time), with the market hoping to use this information to determine the future path of interest rates. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, and China's June CPI data will also be released successively. On the industry front, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming the fourth index component stock to hold Bitcoin, following Tesla, Strategy, and Mercado Libre. Data shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 18,712 BTC, and its inclusion in the index is expected to benefit from the passive allocation demand of index funds. In addition, American Bitcoin (ABTC), a US mining company, will resume trading after completing a 1:15 reverse stock split to avoid delisting from Nasdaq; Berachain will complete its PoL Next upgrade on July 7. Regarding on-chain governance, ENS DAO, Frax DAO, Nexus Mutual DAO, and Arbitrum DAO will all conclude voting on multiple governance proposals this week. Regarding token unlocking, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.2% of its circulating supply on July 6, worth approximately $30.39 million; RAIN will unlock approximately 7.64% of its circulating supply on July 11, worth approximately $787 million; and PUMP will unlock approximately 29.12% of its circulating supply on July 12, worth approximately $130 million. Besides macroeconomic data, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the continued weakening of the yen are also worth noting. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a strong negative correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, with the depreciation of the yen often accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin prices.
Analysis: The AI investment boom is cooling down, and the market is reassessing the sustainability of chip and data center spending.
According to Odaily Odaily, the AI infrastructure investment boom is cooling down, and the market is beginning to reassess the sustainability of chip and data center spending. As investors re-examine whether AI infrastructure investment can be sustained, "AI deals" covering the semiconductor, memory chip, and data center industry chain are showing signs of cooling. Recently, AI-related chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) have been under pressure. Samsung Electronics previously reported record second-quarter results, but revenue fell short of market expectations, causing its stock price to drop nearly 7%, dragging down the entire AI chip sector. Market concerns are growing that the current AI boom, driven by GPUs, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and data center construction, may face repricing as cloud computing giants (Hyperscalers) may slow their investments in AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix's stock price has fallen about 25% from its all-time high ahead of its US IPO, which is also attracting some funds away from existing chip stocks. Analysts point out that after SpaceX's massive IPO boosted valuations of AI-related assets, investors are reassessing the growth logic for the next phase of the AI market. If the AI investment fervor cools further, some funds may flow back from the AI industry chain to other risky assets, including crypto assets. (CoinDesk)
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Following the "end" of the US-Iran ceasefire, cryptocurrency and stock markets experienced widespread declines.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to CoinDesk, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships, and Iran subsequently attacked Kuwait and Bahrain. US President Trump announced the "end" of the ceasefire with Iran, calling the negotiations "meaningless," causing a sharp drop in global risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 2%, the CoinDesk 20 index fell by nearly 3%, and Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fell by about 1.5% at one point. In the crypto derivatives market, BTC futures open interest declined slightly, while ETH triggered approximately $90 million in long position liquidations during the price drop. Overall, the 24-hour crypto market saw approximately $450 million in liquidations, of which approximately $350 million came from Altcoin trading pairs. Altcoins generally fell, and Solana erased all gains since July.
Cryptocurrency stocks fell in pre-market trading; STRATEGY down 4.1%.
According to data from Odaily Odaily, cryptocurrency stocks fell in pre-market trading, following Bitcoin's more than 2% decline. COINBASE GLOBAL fell 3.5%, BIT DIGITAL declined 3.6%, and STRATEGY fell 4.1%. RIOT PLATFORMS fell 4.4%, HUT 8 CORP fell 4.9%, and MARA HOLDINGS fell 3.5%.
CryptoQuant: Local Top and Pullback Imminent
According to Foresight News , CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated that when crowded long positions, depleted spot trading volume, and whale selling occur simultaneously, it usually indicates a local top and an impending pullback.