Bitwise's CIO, who most frequently proclaimed the "death of the four-year cycle," has now admitted that crypto is in a bear market due to the "four-year cycle."

On February 11, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, stated in an interview with CNBC that the "four-year cycle" is the reason for the crypto bear market, a phenomenon that has occurred three times in the cryptocurrency market. "People always try to find a single culprit for the current Bitcoin pullback. But there isn't a single culprit," he said on Monday's ETF Edge program. Hougan believes that investors have recently tended to allocate funds to other popular investment targets, including gold and artificial intelligence stocks, rather than cryptocurrencies. "There are some quantum computing risks. The market is also worried about Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh," he said. "In a bear market, all of these factors are amplified." However, Hougan believes that Bitcoin's weakness should ultimately not undermine the momentum of cryptocurrency-focused ETFs. He believes that what is currently dominating the crypto market is a "self-fulfilling prophecy." "There's good news beneath the surface, it's just that it's taking longer to materialize. Therefore, I don't think this financialization of Bitcoin fundamentally changes its scarcity argument," Hougan said. "It might change some intraday movements or short-term trading dynamics, but it won't change a fundamental fact: the total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million. All derivatives demand must ultimately be channeled into the spot market." It's worth noting that Matt Hougan publicly stated multiple times in the latter half of 2025 (especially around December) that "the four-year cycle is dead." At that time, Bitcoin prices were still high, and Hougan's argument was optimistic and institutional, emphasizing that "this time is different"—the cycle was "killed" by institutional funds and mature markets.