Institutions: Exacerbated capacity constraints and production cuts by major manufacturers in AI component manufacturing; price increases from mature wafer foundry processes expected to extend to 2027.
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Research indicates that AI-powered high-end MLCCs are driving record-high order-to-shipment ratios for major Japanese and Korean manufacturers, increasing the risk of shortages in the second half of 2026.
According to the latest MLCC industry research from TrendForce, driven by both the accelerated replacement of AI servers and the continued mass production of self-developed ASIC chips by cloud service providers (CSPs), the order-to-shipment ratios (BB Ratios) of the three leading MLCC manufacturers—Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden—reached record highs of 1.30, 1.31, and 1.25 respectively in late June 2026. The overall MLCC market BB Ratio also rose to 1.04. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, with new AI chip platforms from Nvidia, Google, and AMD entering mass production in the third quarter, capacity will continue to be occupied by AI orders. Coupled with the dual demand of advance stockpiling, the probability of longer delivery times and rising prices for high-end MLCCs is increasing. The fourth quarter is expected to be a crucial period for observing whether the high-end MLCC market will officially enter a period of shortage. (Cailian Press)
Nomura Securities: Market concerns about "overcapacity" may be excessive; South Korean chip investment is unlikely to quickly translate into production capacity.
According to Mars Finance, Nomura Securities analysts stated in a recent report that market concerns about "computing power oversupply" may be excessive, and the memory chip industry still has a long way to go before entering a downward cycle. The market is currently facing a severe shortage driven by artificial intelligence demand, with major chip manufacturers prioritizing the production of more profitable high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to limited supply of ordinary DRAM and NAND. Nomura analysts emphasized that in this context, concerns about oversupply are excessive. Because the semiconductor industry's construction and development cycles are often very long, projects announced by South Korean chip giants are unlikely to have a substantial impact on supply for several years. (Cailian Press)
GigaDevice: As the production capacity of niche storage markets increases marginally, product prices will see a significant decline.
According to Mars Finance, on June 29th, GigaDevice issued a stock trading risk warning announcement. The company stated that the memory chip industry has historically exhibited significant cyclical fluctuations, and current product prices are already at historical highs. The trend of further substantial increases is unsustainable, and the industry's supply and demand will eventually rebalance. In the future, with changes in the macroeconomic environment, industry cycles, and market supply and demand, the prices of major products may experience a significant decline. This will have a substantial negative impact on the selling price and gross profit margin of the company's memory business, leading to a decline in the company's overall profitability and posing a risk of declining operating performance. The company's current memory products are niche products, primarily supplied to a broad and dispersed market beyond mobile phones, PCs, and servers, including consumer, industrial, networking, and automotive sectors. The current price increase of related products mainly stems from the significant increase in demand in the mainstream memory market driven by AI, prompting major international memory manufacturers to shift their focus to related product areas. The niche memory market primarily benefits indirectly from supply shortages. Unlike the mainstream storage market, the downstream demand in the niche storage market is relatively stable. During the rapid rise in industry prices, downstream demand has been somewhat suppressed. Subsequently, as the marginal capacity of the niche storage market increases, prices will experience a significant decline. The company operates on a fabless model, and given the current overall supply shortage in the niche storage market, there is a risk of further tightening of supply from upstream wafer fab partners. GigaDevice's stock price saw a cumulative deviation of 73.42% in daily closing price increases over 10 consecutive trading days from June 15, 2026 to June 29, 2026, and a cumulative deviation of 125.60% in daily closing price increases over 30 consecutive trading days from May 18, 2026 to June 29, 2026.
Reports indicate that TSMC is significantly expanding its PIC (Picture Assembly and Display) production capacity, which is expected to reach 25,000 wafers per month by 2028.
According to Mars Finance, analysts predict that TSMC's photonic integrated circuit (PIC) production capacity will experience rapid growth. TSMC's capacity is expected to increase from the current level of approximately 500 wafers per month to 10,000 wafers per month by the second quarter of 2026, further increasing to 15,000 wafers per month in the fourth quarter, and projected to reach at least 25,000 wafers per month by 2028. Analysts estimate that, assuming each wafer contains 648 dies, the annualized output of TSMC's PIC production will increase significantly from approximately 4 million units to 78 million units after the monthly capacity increases from 500 to 10,000 wafers. If capacity further reaches 25,000 wafers per month, the annualized PIC output is projected to reach 194 million units. (Taiwan Commercial Times)
Micron accelerates global capacity expansion: $9.3 billion Hiroshima plant in Japan breaks ground, AI memory production capacity sprints towards 2028.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Micron Technology is aggressively expanding its global production capacity to address severe shortages of AI-driven HBM, DRAM, and NAND memory. The company anticipates the supply shortage will continue beyond 2026, with new capacity gradually released from 2027 onwards, representing a massive overall investment. Key aspects include: Significant Investment in the US: * The Manassas, Virginia plant achieved 1α nm process mass production in May 2026. A $2 billion expansion project will quadruple DDR4 wafer supply, primarily supplying the automotive, defense, and industrial sectors, and is supported by chip industry subsidies. * A $50 billion investment in a cutting-edge factory in Boise, Idaho, has broken ground, with the first plant expected to begin production in mid-2027. The company has recently further expanded its US investment to approximately $200 billion (manufacturing + R&D), including the addition of a second fab. * New York State's Clay megafab project, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, continues to advance, planning multiple wafer fabs with a target of mass production around 2030. Simultaneous Expansion in Asia * Hiroshima, Japan, held a groundbreaking ceremony in early July for a 1.5 trillion yen (approximately US$9.3 billion) expansion project, focusing on high-end HBM and other AI chips, with shipments expected around 2028. The Japanese government is providing substantial subsidies. * Singapore: Construction began on a US$24 billion NAND advanced wafer fab in January, with production scheduled for the second half of 2028. * Taiwan: Acquired Powerchip Technology's Tongluo wafer fab for US$1.8 billion, with DRAM production expected to begin in 2027. Micron emphasized that the expansion is primarily to meet long-term demand and localize the supply chain, not to significantly increase consumer-grade supply in the short term. Analysts believe that the overall DRAM/NAND shortage is unlikely to change in the short term, and prices will remain supported. This round of global expansion is expected to significantly increase Micron's capacity and create tens of thousands of jobs. The company aims to produce approximately 40% of its DRAM in the United States by around 2030. Further updates will be provided as AI demand evolves.
Samsung's 4nm production is nearly sold out, and some 8nm processes are nearing full capacity. Samsung's foundry services are beginning to selectively accept orders.
According to reports, industry insiders say that as demand for AI semiconductors heats up and orders from major global technology companies increase, Samsung Electronics' foundry division has implemented an allocation mechanism for certain processes. This mechanism concentrates limited capacity on more important customers and processes, prioritizing existing customers while selectively accepting new orders. (Sina Finance)