Bitunix Analyst: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Rise, Market Awaits Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Signals for Confirmation
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Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a "relief rally" than the start of a new bull market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest US non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, coupled with Warsh's speech being interpreted as dovish, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market performing the best. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently. Bitcoin's current rally has a more solid foundation, mainly driven by continued whale buying, options fund flows towards call options, and improved on-chain data. The end of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs also boosted market sentiment. The cooling US job market has further reduced market expectations for interest rate hikes this year, while Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release more hawkish signals, which investors interpreted as a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the crypto market, on-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while options market funds have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices of $60,000 to $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise is largely driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued progress of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of approximately 20% and budget cuts of about 40%, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of gains is more characteristic of a "relief rebound" than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improved macroeconomic environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional investment in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have all contributed to the market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF fund flows continue to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as a sentiment correction rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
Bitcoin coils near $76.5K as US stocks rebound from Fed rate hike
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