Is SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq poised for a short squeeze? However, of the eight whale that have recently established positions, only one remains bullish.
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SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 today; the short-term impact of passive funds on the stock price may be less than expected.
According to BlockBeats, on Tuesday, July 7th, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index. This adjustment is expected to trigger passive buying by mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the index, thus providing some support for the stock price. JPMorgan's calculations show that, based on three times its current outstanding shares of $75 billion, SpaceX's weight in the index is approximately 1.3%, roughly ranking 21st among the constituent stocks, lower than companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O), Walmart (WMT.N), Intel (INTC.O), and Tesla (TSLA.O). However, due to the relatively limited weight, analysts generally believe that the short-term impact of passive funds on the stock price may be less than some market expectations.
SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 on July 7th. Historical cases show that there has been a pullback after inclusion.
According to Odaily Odaily, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming one of the fastest large IPOs to be included in the index's history. Historical data shows that index inclusion does not necessarily signal a sustained upward trend; in some cases, it has become a temporary peak. After Palantir Technologies was included in the Nasdaq 100 in December 2024, its stock price peaked around the time of inclusion, followed by a correction of about 25% in the following weeks. Strategy also entered a correction period shortly after its inclusion, with a significant pullback from its peak. Analysts point out that this phenomenon typically stems from market expectations being priced in ahead of time, passive buying having already been traded in advance, and sentiment reaching a temporary high before inclusion. If historical patterns continue, SpaceX's short-term performance after inclusion in the index may face volatility rather than a one-sided upward trend.
SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week; historical warnings point to post-inclusion volatility. TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue surpassed mining's high-margin annualized revenue of $630 million for the first time.
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, the world's largest IPO completed its index inclusion milestone yesterday, marking a historic turning point in the valuation logic of mining companies' AI transformation. Key developments are as follows: SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first company in history to have its largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The previous two largest additions to the index—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a period of decline after inclusion, rather than initiating a new round of growth." Analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 completed a "forced buy" at the time of inclusion, and without new fundamental catalysts, the stock price often corrects after the technical buying subsides. SpaceX currently faces specific risks including: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (primarily due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate of $62 per share, implying a downside of approximately 70% from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, custodied in Coinbase Prime), Nasdaq 100 inclusion will trigger larger-scale SPCX holdings by passive funds, further narrowing the indirect exposure of traditional index investors to Bitcoin assets. According to the latest analysis, TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) reported $21 million in high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for approximately 62% of its total revenue of $34 million. This marks the first time TeraWulf has surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue—a historic reversal in revenue structure since its transformation into an AI/HPC infrastructure company. This represents a 117% increase compared to the $9.7 million in HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company currently has AI/HPC leases totaling over 522 megawatts signed with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annualized high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million. Its energy mix consists of nuclear power and hydropower, with an average electricity cost of approximately $0.035/kWh, among the lowest of its peers in the mining industry. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid connection capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price range, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods from $23 to $37, and Clear...
Analysis: SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index presents Bitcoin investment opportunities for passive index investors.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Bitcoin Magazine, SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, after disclosing that its balance sheet held 18,712 bitcoins. JPMorgan Chase estimates that this index rebalancing will drive approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows into funds and ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100. This means that institutional capital has gained structural exposure to Bitcoin through corporate treasury channels. With SpaceX's addition, the number of companies holding Bitcoin treasuries in the Nasdaq 100 has increased to three (SpaceX, Tesla, and Strategy). Analysts point out that index inclusion creates demand driven by rules rather than active allocation, and Bitcoin holdings combined with strong fundamentals can improve a company's market visibility and liquidity.
Nasdaq makes special arrangements for SpaceX: $42 billion in passive funds were invested; the real test will be the unlocking of the shares on August 6.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, fund managers tracking the Nasdaq 100 index will complete a mandatory rebalancing after the market closes on Tuesday, with approximately $4.3 billion passively buying SpaceX (SPCX) shares. Tens of millions of US investors holding Nasdaq funds in 401(k), IRA, or regular accounts will become SpaceX shareholders "passively" without their knowledge. Starting July 7th, SpaceX will officially become a Nasdaq 100 component stock—the fastest company to be added to a major US index in history, with related funds holding approximately 0.5% to 0.7% of the index. Previously, Nasdaq required new stocks to be listed for at least three months and have at least 10% public shareholding before inclusion in the index. However, the new rules that took effect on May 1st significantly lowered the threshold—as long as the market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing component stocks, only 15 trading days and 5 days' advance notice are required for "fast inclusion." This rule was implemented exactly six weeks before SpaceX's IPO on June 12th. Critics argue that this window is "too short to complete price discovery," even going so far as to call it "the most shameless manipulation of major indices," benefiting the company, existing shareholders, and the exchange, while passive fund holders are forced to bear the price costs. SpaceX's publicly traded shares account for only 3% to 5%, and with the float multiplier, passive buying far exceeds the actual float's capacity. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains unchanged, maintaining its existing 12-month observation period and four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability requirements. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter and a projected loss of $4.94 billion for the full year of 2025, meaning it may not meet the S&P inclusion criteria until mid-2027 at the earliest. Analysts point out that the real test will come on August 6th—when the company releases its first quarterly earnings report, and approximately 20% of insider shares will be released from lock-up, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance due to the disappearance of passive buying and potential selling pressure.
US pre-market news at a glance: Samsung's earnings report triggered a collective weakness in semiconductor stocks in pre-market trading; SpaceX officially debuts on the Nasdaq 100 today.
According to BlockBeats, the following are key market news items before the US stock market opened on July 7th: 1. Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing an operating profit increase of over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. Affected by the semiconductor sell-off triggered by the "sell-off" of Samsung's earnings, chip-related technology stocks generally weakened in pre-market trading. The three major US stock futures indices showed mixed results in pre-market trading: Dow Jones futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%. 2. SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq 100 before the US stock market opened today, with Wall Street institutions collectively bullish. Most institutions believe that SpaceX is no longer just a traditional aerospace company, but a platform company with the potential for rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and future space computing. 3. DeepSeek is secretly developing its own inference chip. If successful, this would reduce reliance on external suppliers and give it more cost-effective hardware control. However, the project is still in its early stages and faces manufacturing and memory acquisition restrictions due to US export controls. 4. UBS recommends investors buy SK Hynix's upcoming American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and sell its South Korean shares, as these new shares are expected to trade at higher prices. 5. JPMorgan strategists say the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet over, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. 6. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20 was 21,000, compared to 30,750 in the previous week. 7. BlackRock will launch an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to meet investors' growing demand for participation in the AI-driven stock market rally and challenge Invesco's dominant position. 8. Amazon is returning to the US bond market to raise funds for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company will issue eight benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 40 years, raising at least $25 billion in the dollar bond offering. 9. Global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has formed on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, although doubts remain about profitability and valuation.