Warsh declined to comment on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in July.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to comment, reiterating that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged.
On July 1, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the 2026 European Central Bank Forum that the US economy has solid demand and strong supply, and this is before the results of AI become apparent. When pressed on whether he was a hawk, he declined to comment, but reiterated his stance: while inflation expectations and risks have recently subsided, anyone who thinks the central bank will tolerate inflation above 2% will be disappointed—the Fed will definitely deliver on price stability.
Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Swiss private bank Julius Baer predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and the dollar may weaken, thus gold prices are expected to recover lost ground.
Warsh: Don't expect to get hints from the Fed about the future direction of interest rates.
BlockBeats reports that on July 1st, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that investors should pay more attention to economic data to determine whether the central bank will raise interest rates. Warsh did not give any hints about whether the Fed would raise rates in July and reiterated his dissatisfaction with "forward guidance." Warsh was nominated by Trump earlier this year and took office as Fed chairman in May. He previously served on the Fed during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. When making public statements on economic issues, Warsh is unlikely to be as outspoken as Powell. He has stated that he believes excessive commentary from Fed officials can confuse investors. (Jinshi)
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: The Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates.
Odaily Odaily reports that Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the US government finance its fiscal deficit. He believes it is reasonable to consider setting an inflation target range, and that Fed Chairman Warsh is reiterating the commitment to the 2% target, favoring a range for inflation. However, adjusting the inflation target at this stage would undermine the Fed's credibility. (Jinshi)
Analysts: The Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates in September.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran stated, "The US non-farm payroll data was actually weak, but I still believe the inflation rate will peak above 3.7%, and artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy industry are still supporting economic growth. The Fed may have to raise interest rates in September. I think this is the real point of contention between the US and Europe." Subran believes that the European Central Bank will not take further action after last month's rate hike. "That was an insurance-style rate hike, but judging from the current data, it seems to be over," he said. "The traumatic effects of the (Iranian) war will take time to manifest; the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than it was a few weeks ago." (Jinshi)