Polymarket上新“Tesla将在12月31日前在加州推出Robotaxi服务”
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Polymarket has listed a new article: "Tesla will launch Robotaxi service in California by December 31st."
PPP's market prediction tool shows that Polymarket has added a new prediction: "Tesla will officially launch its robotaxi service in California by December 31, 2026." If Tesla officially launches its autonomous taxi service, requiring no continuous human driver intervention, in California by the end of 2026, the prediction is "Yes"; otherwise, it's "No." Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and robotaxi deployments, but progress varies significantly by region. Currently, it is conducting more aggressive driverless mobility testing and planning in some parts of the US (such as Texas), while in California, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory system. California's DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety driver requirements, and commercial passenger transport permits. Currently, Tesla in California primarily operates with its supervised autopilot function (FSD) and has not yet obtained a commercial robotaxi license allowing fully driverless operation. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely seen as prioritizing deployment in regions with more relaxed regulations, and progress in California remains highly uncertain. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.
Barclays: Tesla's AI strategy may revolve around Robotaxi, but the inflection point for large-scale deployment has not yet arrived.
According to a recent research Odaily by Barclays, self-driving taxis (Robotaxi) are the most crucial part of Tesla's AI strategy. The report points out that Tesla currently has three main growth engines: FSD (Full Self-Driving), Robotaxi, and the Optimus humanoid robot. Among these, Optimus has the largest potential market space but is still in the prototype stage; FSD has already begun generating revenue, but its market space is relatively limited. In contrast, Robotaxi has both a huge potential market and has already begun commercial operation, therefore Barclays considers it Tesla's most important AI business at present. Barclays gives Tesla an "equal weight" rating with a target price of $360.
The probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger before the end of September has dropped to 10% on Polymarket, and the stock has fallen 30% in the past 24 hours.
According to data from Polymarket's prediction market tool, the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing their merger by...? has decreased to 10% (a 30% drop in 24 hours) compared to the previous prediction of September 30, 2026; the probability of announcing the merger within the year, before December 31, 2026, has decreased to 25% (an 18% drop in 24 hours). Previously, it was reported that SpaceX would be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is transitioning entirely to a subscription model: Buy-out versions will be discontinued in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan after June 30th; there is no clear timetable yet for mainland China.
Mars Finance reported on June 26 that Tesla has recently made a major adjustment to its FSD (Full Self-Driving) sales model globally, switching entirely to a subscription model. The official websites for Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan have already indicated that the FSD buy-out option will be discontinued after June 30, officially transitioning to a subscription model. Currently, the buy-out price in Hong Kong is HK$54,000 (approximately RMB 46,800), while the prices in Macau and Taiwan are MOP 55,700 (approximately RMB 46,900) and NTD 222,000 (approximately RMB 47,000) respectively. Regarding whether the FSD subscription model will be implemented in mainland China, an insider at Tesla China only stated, "No further information to share." (Daily Economic News)
Rivian claims it will launch an autonomous driving system comparable to Tesla's FSD this year.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe recently stated that the company is progressing according to plan and will release a supervised autopilot system similar to Tesla's FSD later this year. (Sina Finance)
Tesla's FSD supervised version receives road permit in Denmark
Mars Finance reported on June 10th that Tesla's European division confirmed on Tuesday via the social media platform X that Full Self-Driving (FSD) has been approved for road use in Denmark, and stated that an update will be released soon. Since the Netherlands opened the approval gates, this is the fourth EU country to allow the software on the road. Like other approved regions in Europe, Denmark has imposed special restrictions on the operation of FSD: currently, the software is only compatible with vehicles equipped with fourth-generation Autopilot hardware (HW4). Furthermore, the local version used is a European-customized version of FSD 14, with the interface and functions specifically adjusted for European traffic regulations. (Titanium Garage)