The probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger before the end of September has dropped to 10% on Polymarket, and the stock has fallen 30% in the past 24 hours.
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JPMorgan Chase: Potential obstacles to a Tesla-SpaceX merger have been underestimated.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta stated that while a Tesla-SpaceX merger "looks plausible on paper," current speculation surrounding the merger underestimates the potential obstacles hindering the deal. These potential obstacles include regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions; governance and voting rights symmetry; and the perception that "the merger will be a SpaceX-led acquisition, rather than a merger of equals." He added, "Overall, we will be watching SpaceX's acquisition currency, the regulatory landscape, and Musk's voting rights in Tesla as catalysts for a potential merger." JPMorgan stated that if the deal occurs, the most likely structure would be a SpaceX-led, all-stock acquisition of Tesla.
The logic behind a SpaceX-Tesla merger has been reinforced, with the question of "when to merge" becoming a focal point of discussion.
Odaily Odaily that ten years ago, Musk believed SpaceX and Tesla had a "weak connection" and insufficient justification for a merger. Now, market discussions have shifted from "whether they will merge" to "when they will merge," with long-term investors believing a merger is inevitable. While Musk hasn't publicly confirmed it, he frequently mentions the "integration" of his businesses, and SpaceX has hinted in filings about a possible large-scale share issuance, fueling speculation about a deal. Both companies have been transitioning towards AI in recent years: Tesla is betting on self-driving cars and humanoid robots, while SpaceX acquired xAI and plans to deploy a space data center. AI is expected to become SpaceX's largest revenue source starting this year. The business ties between the two companies have clearly strengthened; SpaceX disclosed that it purchases batteries and Cybertrucks from Tesla, and Tesla indirectly holds SpaceX equity through the xAI acquisition. Although Musk denied the merger logic a decade ago, in 2025 he acknowledged synergies among the three companies in the field of solar-powered AI satellites—a key technology he sees as "accessing large amounts of solar energy." (Jinshi)
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
SpaceX IPO quiet period ends, Wall Street institutions scramble to upgrade ratings
According to Odaily Odaily, with the end of the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports, with several major brokerages giving it a positive rating, indicating that institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. As underwriters for the IPO, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both gave SpaceX a buy-equivalent rating. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a target price of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target price of $300. In addition, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and other institutions also initiated coverage, giving buy or equivalent ratings. Raymond James Financial gave the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale initiating coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a target price as high as $800, believing that SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century." Analysts believe that the market's optimism about SpaceX is mainly based on its strategic layout in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a continuous source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale. As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held 18,712 bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the IPO quiet period provided a window for institutional investors to systematically assess SpaceX's valuation for the first time, and the fact that almost all major institutions simultaneously gave positive ratings is rare for large IPOs. (CoinDesk)
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Naver's $9.9 billion stock swap deal with Dunamu has been delayed again until the end of the year, while South Korea's digital asset law remains unresolved.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7, Naver Financial and Dunamu postponed the completion date of their full share swap transaction to December 31, marking the second delay in the deal. The deal to merge Dunamu, the operator of South Korea's largest crypto exchage Upbit, into Naver's financial sector was originally scheduled to close on September 30. Dunamu disclosed a new timeline on the 6th through corrections to its initial filing last November, but incomplete digital asset legislation and pending antitrust reviews remain major uncertainties. The company has postponed its extraordinary general meeting of shareholders from August 18 to November 19, and the shareholder confirmation date has been reset to October 22. Several government approvals are still required before the transaction can be completed, including approval from the Korea Fair Trade Commission (FTC) for the merger, approval for the change of Naver Financial's largest shareholder under credit information regulations, and acceptance of the filing for the change of Dunamu's largest shareholder under specific financial transaction information laws. Dunamu stated that progress at any of these stages could further extend the timeline or even cause the transaction to change. Dunamu also pointed out that the Digital Assets Basic Law, currently under consideration in Congress, is a real variable affecting the progress and outcome of transactions. As this bill is being enacted, regulators are also simultaneously considering implementing bank-style no-fault liability rules for exchanges, requiring platforms to compensate users for losses caused by hacker attacks.