Following its IPO, investors have been gauging SpaceX's valuation in the dark. Next week, investment bank research reports and target prices will be released, providing guidance for the stock price trend.
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SpaceX IPO quiet period ends, Wall Street institutions scramble to upgrade ratings
According to Odaily Odaily, with the end of the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports, with several major brokerages giving it a positive rating, indicating that institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. As underwriters for the IPO, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both gave SpaceX a buy-equivalent rating. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a target price of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target price of $300. In addition, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and other institutions also initiated coverage, giving buy or equivalent ratings. Raymond James Financial gave the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale initiating coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a target price as high as $800, believing that SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century." Analysts believe that the market's optimism about SpaceX is mainly based on its strategic layout in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a continuous source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale. As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held 18,712 bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the IPO quiet period provided a window for institutional investors to systematically assess SpaceX's valuation for the first time, and the fact that almost all major institutions simultaneously gave positive ratings is rare for large IPOs. (CoinDesk)
Tom Lee: The pullback following SpaceX's unlocking presents a good buying opportunity; chasing the price higher in the short term is still not recommended.
According to BlockBeats, in a recent interview on July 3rd, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated that he would not set a specific price target for SpaceX because its growth is primarily focused on the future. "Setting a target now is essentially discounting the growth of the next 20 years to the present, which is almost pure speculation." Tom Lee specifically mentioned the upcoming share unlocking, which may create selling pressure from early investors hedging their positions. However, this selling pressure "will actually become a good buying opportunity." Tom Lee believes that chasing SpaceX at high prices in the short term is not advisable; it is appropriate to use the pullback caused by the unlocking to build a position. SpaceX's first major unlocking window is expected after the Q2 earnings report, between the end of July and mid-August. It will allow eligible insiders/early investors to sell up to 20% of their shares; an additional 10% will be unlocked if the share price consistently exceeds the IPO price by 30% (approximately $175 or more). Following this, there will be multiple small unlocks, such as approximately 7% around August 21st and September 10th, and phased releases at 70/90/105/120/135 days; approximately 28% will be released after the Q3 financial report, and finally, the majority of the remaining shares will be fully unlocked after the 180-day lock-up period ends. Shares held by Musk and other core shareholders have a longer lock-up period, approximately 366 days until June 2027. Overall, August and September will be a period of concentrated unlocking pressure for SpaceX.
A summary of key pre-market news for US stocks: SpaceX donates shares to the "Trump account," and SK Hynix initiates its roadshow for a US IPO.
According to Odaily Odaily, the following are key financial news items in the US stock market that investors should pay attention to: 1. US stock index futures are mixed. Dow Jones futures are down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.17%. 2. International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.76% to $68.167 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 0.71% to $71.605 per barrel. 3. International spot gold and silver prices both declined. Spot gold fell 0.69% to $4,145.79 per ounce; spot silver fell 0.66% to $61.95 per ounce. 4. Semi-analytical research firm SemiAnalysis has published a report indicating that NVIDIA's Kyber NVL144 rack architecture may face delays. The firm attributes this to "significant challenges remaining in the manufacturing process of the PCB midplane" and predicts that delivery will be postponed until 2028. 5. Broadcom will develop custom (ASIC) chips for Apple, and the two companies have agreed to expand their technological collaboration until 2031. Broadcom shares rose more than 4% in pre-market trading. 6. SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer will donate a portion of SpaceX shares to the "Trump Account" as part of the "Invest in America" program. 7. SK Hynix has officially launched its roadshow for a US IPO. The offering size is approximately $28 billion, potentially making it one of the top three largest IPOs in global history.
With the IPO quiet period about to end, a wave of SpaceX research reports will influence market pricing.
Odaily Odaily reports that since SpaceX's record-breaking IPO last month, investors have largely been in a "blind men and the elephant" situation, lacking sufficient financial forecasts to determine the company's fair value. This situation will change next week when the blackout period for bank analysts involved in underwriting SpaceX's $86 billion IPO ends. The IPO was led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, with 18 other banks participating. Starting next Tuesday, investors will have a flood of new research reports, target price forecasts, and growth expectations, which will help reveal the short-term and multi-year trajectory of SpaceX's stock price. "Everyone's talking about what this company might look like in 2030, not what it can do in the next 12 months," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. He added, "This is an investment focused on a brighter future, but it still needs to be watched over the next four years." (Jinshi)
Data shows that 20% of active BTC investors are currently experiencing paper losses, indicating the market has entered a period of mild devaluation.
ChainCatcher reports that crypto analyst Darkfost released an on-chain indicator interpretation on the X platform, using the core Bitcoin Time Economics metrics TMM (Real Market Mean) and AVIV ratio to analyze the current profit and loss structure of Bitcoin holdings. The TMM metric excludes dormant Bitcoins that have not been moved for a long time or are permanently lost, only calculating the average holding cost of actively held Bitcoin, currently valued at approximately $76,700. This level has become a significant price resistance, with many investors exiting at breakeven when the price touched this point in May. The accompanying AVIV (Active Value/Investor Value) ratio is currently hovering around 0.8, in a valuation discount range, representing an average unrealized loss of 20% for all active BTC investors. Historically, this indicator has dipped to 0.5 to 0.6 at the bottom of bear markets, corresponding to investor losses of 40%-50%. The current losses have not yet reached the level of extreme bear markets. Analysts also pointed out that even with a large influx of institutional funds and Bitcoin ETFs injecting massive liquidity into the market during this cycle, Bitcoin still follows its own cyclical patterns. In the short term, there is no need to wait for indicators to fall to historically low levels before a rebound occurs. However, it is necessary to face the current pressure environment of widespread losses among existing investors.
Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup backed by Samsung Electronics, plans to IPO in South Korea next year.
According to reports, Sunghyun Park, CEO of Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup backed by Samsung Electronics, stated that the company plans to IPO in South Korea in the first or second quarter of next year. Park said that Rebellions has already begun generating actual revenue, "and for this reason, we are working with the underwriting teams at JPMorgan Chase and Samsung Securities to prepare for the IPO." (Jiemian)