Opinion: The notion that "the bottom has been reached" has created a false sense of buy the dips among market participants to buy at the lowest point. Instead of chasing the absolute bottom, investors should wait for trend confirmation.
Related
Analysts say the so-called "bottom has been reached" is more of a narrative trap; the focus should be on the process rather than the price level.
According to an article by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, as reported by Odaily Odaily, the prevailing opinion in the community is that "the bottom is in," but many people are overlooking the true meaning of "bottom." From a technical perspective, a bottom typically refers to the lowest point during a trend reversal, which in extreme cases is the deepest lower shadow on a candlestick chart (even on very short timeframes). The problem is that most investors are unlikely to pinpoint the exact lowest point, so blindly chasing the "buy the dips" or trying to predict the bottom is meaningless. Instead of focusing on the absolute low, it's better to concentrate on the "process management" of trading and investing—how to gradually build and adjust risk exposure. Position sizing is a continuous optimization process, just as bottom formation takes time to confirm. Darkfost reminds market participants to avoid over-reliance on narratives like "the bottom has been reached" and to focus more on methodology and execution to improve overall risk management capabilities.
Analysis: The Bitcoin net UTXO supply ratio triggered a buy signal for the first time since November 2022, but bottom confirmation still needs to be awaited.
PANews reported on July 3rd that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the Bitcoin Net UTXO Supply Ratio has entered buy territory for the first time since November 2022, triggering buy signals in several trading days from late June to early July. Historically, such signals typically appear near cycle lows, thus possessing some reference value. However, confirming a bottom requires observing whether the ratio can stabilize in a positive value while the price rises in tandem; a return to negative territory could be a false signal. Meanwhile, the loss ratio indicator shows that the fast moving average broke through 50% at the end of June, meaning that more than half of Bitcoin is in a loss-making state; however, the slow moving average remains around 40%. If the loss ratio maintains its current level, it will take approximately 7 to 8 weeks for the slow moving average to reach the 50% threshold.
One new address that previously buy the dips ETH at the bottom has made a 221% profit in 7 days and has further increased its HYPE long position today.
According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that after the US non-farm payrolls report showed a significant drop in numbers last night, market expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve cooled considerably. The crypto market continued to react to improved macro liquidity expectations, significantly outperforming US stocks. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose approximately 2%; ETH rose over 6%, regaining its position above $1700, a cumulative rebound of 12.5% from the June 26th low ($1510). In this round of market activity, a Hyperliquid smart money account (0x0c4a) has seen its ETH long position unrealized at a profit of 221%. This address established its ETH position near the low point on June 26th at an average price of approximately $1531, with a long position size of approximately 4060 ETH, a notional value of approximately $6.91 million, and an initial investment of $311,000. Currently, with 20x leverage, the unrealized profit is approximately $691,000. In addition to ETH, it also placed a long position in BTC on the same day, currently showing a floating profit of approximately $250,000; and in the past 7 hours, it further built a long position in HYPE (10x leverage), with a position size of approximately $380,000 and an average price of $66.7, continuing to strengthen its long exposure. It is understood that this address is a recently created account: after injecting approximately US$2.01 million seven days ago to buy the dips, it has accumulated a profit of approximately US$993,000 in the past seven days. The current overall leverage is approximately 4.7 times, and the total capital size has increased to approximately US$2.99 million.
A total of 41.8% of the circulating supply was destroyed; weekly agreement fees reached $7.2 million.
Odaily Odaily reports that Sapijiju posted on the X platform, announcing the release of the first official weekly report. From June 29th to July 5th, the total fees for the Bonding Curve, PumpSwap, and Terminal protocols amounted to $7.2 million, with 50% of the net fees used for PUMP buybacks and burns. In the past seven days, approximately $3.7 million worth of PUMP has been bought back and burned, bringing the cumulative burned supply to 41.8%. Bonding Curve's weekly trading volume reached $553 million, and PumpSwap's reached $1.65 billion. The previously launched Tokenized Agent launch option has been removed based on community feedback. Pump App's new Swap service has been launched, reducing transaction speed from 1-2 seconds to 300-400 milliseconds. After the launch of the low KYC deposit channel, the platform's daily deposit trading volume has increased by approximately 21%. Terminal launched an offline token tagging function, reduced the JS package size by 35%, and added active viewers, wallet filtering, and OG filtering to its search function. Since the launch of GO, related posts have received over 18 million views, and approximately 3,000 bounty tasks have been created, receiving 18,000 submissions and paying out over $600,000 in rewards.
Opinion: Neocloud and memory sectors are experiencing position clearing; pullbacks often present the best buying opportunities.
According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, renowned analyst degentrading stated that the current market is experiencing a sustained sell-off, with IREN and CIFR leading the decline in the Neocloud sector. Even memory stocks, considered the "ultimate momentum factor," have not been spared, with Micron (MU) falling below the $1000 mark reminiscent of its price action after its last earnings release. Meta (META) has also given back some of its previous gains, as the market has soberly assessed the substance of its plans, dampening previous expectations. Degentrading believes that such position clearing is usually drastic and rapid, and he does not believe he has the ability to accurately time the "absolute bottom." However, he emphasizes that this is precisely why investors should conduct in-depth research themselves. Only in this way can they maintain confidence in holding positions during periods of increased market volatility. Degentrading also cautions that leveraged instruments are not suitable for long-term holding, but only for short-term trading over a few days; otherwise, they will face volatility attrition. He advises investors to ensure they can withstand drawdowns, as position clearing, while brutal, often presents the best opportunities to establish new positions.
Analysis: Record-high holdings by long-term holders may indicate that Bitcoin's current cycle has bottomed out ahead of schedule.
According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that Bitcoin long-term holders' (LTH) holdings have reached an all-time high. This indicator historically often corresponds to the bottom of market cycles, suggesting that this Bitcoin cycle may bottom out earlier than previous cycles. According to Glassnode data, long-term holders hold approximately 14.7 million Bitcoins, a record high, indicating that seasoned investors maintain strong confidence in holding the cryptocurrency. Klippsten believes this trend suggests the market bottom may have appeared earlier than expected. However, there are differing opinions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, previously stated that Bitcoin may bottom out between October and December 2026. He believes that Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) mNAV (market capitalization relative to Bitcoin reserve net value) typically leads Bitcoin's bottoming process by about 6 months. Currently, this indicator has fallen to 0.72, close to the 2022 bear market low of 0.7. Therefore, he predicts the current Bitcoin bottom may be in the $42,000 to $44,000 range. Furthermore, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, stated that if the US CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, Bitcoin reserve companies like Strategy may continue deleveraging, further pressuring Bitcoin prices downward. Galaxy Digital has also lowered its forecast for the bill's passage in 2026 to 50%, believing the window of opportunity for the US Senate to advance related legislation before its August recess is quite limited.