Analysts say the so-called "bottom has been reached" is more of a narrative trap; the focus should be on the process rather than the price level.
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Opinion: The notion that "the bottom has been reached" has created a false sense of buy the dips among market participants to buy at the lowest point. Instead of chasing the absolute bottom, investors should wait for trend confirmation.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost criticized the recurring "bottoming out" rhetoric in the market. Darkfost pointed out that technically, a bottom is the lowest point of a trend reversal that has already occurred, and almost no one can accurately buy at that point. Since it's almost certain that you can't buy at that point, chasing or estimating it is meaningless. Market participants should not place their trust in "guessing the bottom," but should understand that position management is a continuous process of refinement. Just as the bottom itself needs time to consolidate, only after the trend reversal is confirmed can we conclude that a bottom has formed. Darkfost believes that the focus should be on the process, not price action. The key is to distinguish between post-confirmation and pre-prediction: the narrative of "bottoming out" easily creates the illusion of being able to accurately buy the dips, while the truly meaningful approach is to gradually build and manage positions in the bottom area, waiting for trend confirmation rather than chasing the absolute lowest point.
Analysts: Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio briefly dipped below -20, an extremely pessimistic phase that may indicate a bottom is forming.
PANews reported on July 6th that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has once again reached extreme negative territory, falling below -20 before slightly recovering. The Sharpe ratio measures the relationship between investment risk and return; a negative value indicates a higher risk relative to current returns, which aligns with Bitcoin's third consecutive quarterly decline (the latest quarterly drop was 16.1%). Historically, such periods of extreme pessimism often last for weeks to months, corresponding to a new bottoming phase followed by a price rebound. The analyst stated that the data suggests we are currently approaching this phase, but it's important to note that this is an observation over a long-term timeframe.
Gekko Microelectronics, which has seen two consecutive days of limit-up trading: The company's 200-megapixel product development is progressing smoothly and preliminary cooperation intentions have been reached with some customers, but no products have yet been shipped to customers.
Mars Finance reports that Gekko Microelectronics (688728.SH) issued an announcement regarding abnormal stock trading fluctuations and trading risks. Recently, the company's ultra-high pixel product introduction to major clients and its Lingang 12-inch wafer fab have attracted significant attention. Internal verification confirms that the company's 200-megapixel product development is progressing smoothly, and preliminary cooperation intentions have been reached with some clients, but no product shipments have yet occurred. For many years, the company has focused on the CIS and display driver chip field, and the Lingang fab currently mainly produces the company's high-end CIS products. The company will continue to focus on its core business of process development and product research and development. Information disseminated by relevant market institutions does not represent the company's actual operating progress and does not constitute a business commitment. The realization of the above projects will be affected by various factors such as the policy environment, market demand, and the company's own operating conditions, and there is a risk that they may not be achieved. (Cailian Press)
Analysis: Record-high holdings by long-term holders may indicate that Bitcoin's current cycle has bottomed out ahead of schedule.
According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten stated that Bitcoin long-term holders' (LTH) holdings have reached an all-time high. This indicator historically often corresponds to the bottom of market cycles, suggesting that this Bitcoin cycle may bottom out earlier than previous cycles. According to Glassnode data, long-term holders hold approximately 14.7 million Bitcoins, a record high, indicating that seasoned investors maintain strong confidence in holding the cryptocurrency. Klippsten believes this trend suggests the market bottom may have appeared earlier than expected. However, there are differing opinions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, previously stated that Bitcoin may bottom out between October and December 2026. He believes that Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) mNAV (market capitalization relative to Bitcoin reserve net value) typically leads Bitcoin's bottoming process by about 6 months. Currently, this indicator has fallen to 0.72, close to the 2022 bear market low of 0.7. Therefore, he predicts the current Bitcoin bottom may be in the $42,000 to $44,000 range. Furthermore, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, stated that if the US CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, Bitcoin reserve companies like Strategy may continue deleveraging, further pressuring Bitcoin prices downward. Galaxy Digital has also lowered its forecast for the bill's passage in 2026 to 50%, believing the window of opportunity for the US Senate to advance related legislation before its August recess is quite limited.
US pre-market news highlights: EDA giants focus on AI chip design; SpaceX officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index; Analysts say AI computing power demand is far from peaking.
Mars Finance reports the following key financial news from the US stock market that investors should pay attention to: 1. US stock index futures showed mixed results. Dow Jones futures rose 0.29%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.94%. 2. International oil prices rose slightly. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $68.967 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.74% to $72.526 per barrel. 3. International gold and silver spot prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot gold rose 0.03% to $4166.01 per ounce; spot silver fell 0.64% to $61.62 per ounce. 4. European stock indices all fell. The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.47%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.20%, and the German DAX 30 fell 0.63%. 5. EDA giant Synopsys informed more than 10 chip manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, in April and May that it would "suspend" some of its wafer fab manufacturing analysis software, shifting resources to the more profitable AI chip design business. 6. SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index today, becoming the first company in the index with a space business at its core. JPMorgan Chase estimates its weight in the index at approximately 1.3%. Wall Street generally gave it an "initial bullish" rating, with a target price as high as $800. 7. Google invested over €400 million in Proxima Fusion, a European nuclear fusion "unicorn" company, with the aim of building a commercial fusion power plant by the 2030s. 8. Anthropic announced a 20-year AI data center lease agreement with AI data center operator TeraWulf. The project has a capacity of approximately 401 megawatts and is expected to be operational in the second half of 2027, reaching full capacity in early 2028. 9. A recent report from semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis indicates that AI computing power demand is far from peaking. The firm predicts that Meta computing power procurement will accelerate, and capital expenditure may increase significantly next year. 10. Walmart and its Sam's Club announced price reductions on thousands of popular summer items and everyday essentials across the United States. 11. Microsoft raised its Microsoft 365 Enterprise subscription fee earlier this month, with increases ranging from 8% to 33%. Personal and Education versions are currently unaffected. (Cailian Press)
Gu Yuxian, a Tsinghua University Special Scholar, joined DeepSeek, where he previously led the development of large-scale model distillation and a 50x speedup for long text processing.
According to Beating's monitoring, Gu Yuxian, a PhD graduate from the Department of Computer Science at Tsinghua University and recipient of the 2025 Graduate Special Scholarship, has officially joined DeepSeek, and his name has appeared in the author list of the DeepSeek V4 paper. Gu Yuxian's research mainly focuses on efficiency optimization of large models in the pre-training, model compression, and inference stages, and has been cited nearly 5,000 times on Google Scholar. Gu Yuxian's previous representative works include the knowledge distillation method MiniLLM for large models (which has been adopted by platforms such as Google, Alibaba, and NVIDIA), and the hybrid architecture model Jet-Nemotron. Jet-Nemotron achieves a 53.6 times faster throughput than traditional full-attention models when processing 256K ultra-long contexts on an H100 GPU, and surpasses hybrid expert models with larger parameter scales in multiple benchmark tests.