Before the non-farm payrolls report was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 68.5%.
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June non-farm payroll data may be cooler, with the market expecting 110,000 new jobs. The Federal Reserve's policy path is under close scrutiny.
According to BlockBeats, the US will release its June non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 PM Beijing time on July 2nd. The market widely expects 110,000 new non-farm jobs in June, lower than May's 172,000; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month. The market is focused on two core issues surrounding the June data: first, whether the job market will continue to tighten after May; and second, whether May's strong performance was affected by one-off factors, particularly the short-term labor demand generated by the World Cup. This will directly impact interest rate expectations. The current stabilization of the US job market has reduced the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Unlike last year's rate cuts, the financial market currently widely expects the Fed to raise rates sometime this year to address inflationary pressures. However, if the job market unexpectedly weakens, this expectation could quickly reverse. If employment data is stronger than expected, the market may further reduce its expectations for interest rate cuts, or even re-priced in the possibility of rate hikes, putting pressure on highly valued assets such as technology stocks. Conversely, if the data is significantly weak, it may boost expectations for rate cuts, but it will also trigger market concerns about the prospects for US economic growth and corporate profits. The market is also paying close attention to the volatility of assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and the Japanese yen exchange rate.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 47.6%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 23%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.5%.
Non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, prompting markets to bet on a rate hike being delayed until the end of the year.
According to Odaily Odaily, U.S. nonfarm payroll data for June showed that despite a decline in the unemployment rate, hiring activity slowed significantly in June, dampening the initial momentum of job growth this year. Data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (market expectations were 110,000) after a downward revision of 74,000 jobs to the previous two months last month. The decline in the unemployment rate is due to a significant drop in the labor force participation rate—when the labor force participation rate declines, it means that some people have left the labor market (e.g., giving up job hunting, retiring early, returning to school, etc.). These people are no longer counted in the "unemployed" population or the "labor force," thus leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate. Following the data release, spot gold rose briefly, and the market reduced its bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. The market has fully priced in a December rate hike by the Fed, previously expecting an October hike. (Golden Ten)
The credibility of US employment data is being questioned; the non-farm payrolls "lifeline": if the increase is below 150,000, the Fed is almost certain not to raise interest rates.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, with the June non-farm payroll report about to be released (moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday), the market is showing significant disagreement regarding the accuracy of current US employment data. From March to May this year, the US averaged 188,000 new jobs per month, marking the strongest hiring cycle in three years. However, industry insiders worry that this figure may be inflated: one-off factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary work related to the World Cup have pushed up the data, and the spring and summer employment trend often shows a "peak followed by a decline." Analysts point out that June's new jobs need to reach or exceed Wall Street's consensus forecast of 110,000 to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If it significantly exceeds expectations by 150,000 or more, the Federal Reserve might seriously consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting this month; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed will almost certainly maintain interest rates unchanged. Other key observations include: • The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and still at a historically low level; • Recruitment is gradually diversifying across industries, moving away from the previous dominance of the healthcare sector; • Year-on-year wage growth is expected to remain around 3.5%, with no significant inflationary pressure yet. Analysts believe that although the labor market is currently recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need further verification from the June non-farm payrolls report.