The US unemployment rate was 4.2% in June, below the expected 4.30% and the previous reading of 4.30%.
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The final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for June in the United States was 51.2, compared to 51.3 in the previous month.
Odaily Odaily reports that the final reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI for June was 51.2, down from 51.3 previously. The final reading of the US S&P Global Composite PMI for June was 51.9, down from 52.2 previously. (Jinshi)
Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Swiss private bank Julius Baer predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and the dollar may weaken, thus gold prices are expected to recover lost ground.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
USDD Releases June Transparency Report: Smart Allocator Cumulative Returns Exceed $20 Million, Profit Strategies Continue to Diversify
ChainCatcher reports that the decentralized stablecoin USDD has officially released its June Transparency Report. Data shows that as of the end of June, USDD's total collateralized assets reached $2.03 billion, with a peak circulating supply of $1.42 billion during the month. The overcollateralization ratio at the end of the month was 149.35%, demonstrating strong stability and risk buffering capabilities. Additionally, Smart Allocator generated $216,000 in new earnings during the month, bringing its cumulative earnings to $21.29 million. Regarding ecosystem progress, Morpho successfully launched on the PT-sUSDD market and has integrated with Singularry AI; sUSDD's TVL on the Pendle market surpassed $30 million. These key data points and significant ecosystem advancements demonstrate USDD's continued commitment to strengthening stability and improving capital efficiency, further solidifying its position in the decentralized stablecoin market. The official USDD statement indicates that it will continue to enrich its vault product line and deepen its integration with the DeFi ecosystem, building the most trustworthy stablecoin infrastructure.