Analysis: Weak non-farm payrolls data reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike, leading to a rise in bond prices.
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The protagonist of ByteDance's stock trading success story: CPI, non-farm payroll data, etc., are not just market noise; he previously suffered a significant drawdown in his Nvidia investment due to ignoring the interest rate hike environment.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, reviewed his journey to a 30 million yuan fortune in the US stock market on Binance Square. He stated that CPI, non-farm payrolls, and Federal Reserve policies are all macroeconomic factors, while earnings season reflects the performance of specific companies or industries, and also reflects changes in the macroeconomy. Leto Bao stated that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates greater inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, meaning a slow depreciation of the currency, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve policies, and earnings season should not be simply dismissed as "noise," but all have some reference value. He mentioned that when he previously invested in Nvidia, he ignored the broader interest rate environment, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be incorporated into investment decisions. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made substantial profits (around 30 million RMB) by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market and subsequently resigned. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which prompted him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
Analysis: The target range for this weak Bitcoin rebound is $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 being the ceiling for a short-term rebound in the bear market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 4th, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of current short-term Bitcoin holdings (held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through this range to gradually bring the cost trend line together. However, each attempt to break through triggers some weak holders to cash out when unrealized losses turn into unrealized profits. This cycle of "breakout—resistance—pullback—breakout again" is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus. Based on this, the analyst divides the expected rebound into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is the realized price (STH-RP) for short-term holders, which is often considered the ceiling for a bear market rebound. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the sentiment bull-bear dividing line; every trend reversal begins with the last breakout above this line. Analysts personally favor a "weak rebound," predicting a move to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. A break above $70,000 would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions would be considered to allow for future adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000; hedging near this level will suppress volatility. After a breakout, the next positive Gamma level falls precisely between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming a resistance zone.
Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in August, pressuring Bitcoin lower as traders repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
Analysis: The AI investment boom is cooling down, and the market is reassessing the sustainability of chip and data center spending.
According to Odaily Odaily, the AI infrastructure investment boom is cooling down, and the market is beginning to reassess the sustainability of chip and data center spending. As investors re-examine whether AI infrastructure investment can be sustained, "AI deals" covering the semiconductor, memory chip, and data center industry chain are showing signs of cooling. Recently, AI-related chip stocks such as Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) have been under pressure. Samsung Electronics previously reported record second-quarter results, but revenue fell short of market expectations, causing its stock price to drop nearly 7%, dragging down the entire AI chip sector. Market concerns are growing that the current AI boom, driven by GPUs, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and data center construction, may face repricing as cloud computing giants (Hyperscalers) may slow their investments in AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix's stock price has fallen about 25% from its all-time high ahead of its US IPO, which is also attracting some funds away from existing chip stocks. Analysts point out that after SpaceX's massive IPO boosted valuations of AI-related assets, investors are reassessing the growth logic for the next phase of the AI market. If the AI investment fervor cools further, some funds may flow back from the AI industry chain to other risky assets, including crypto assets. (CoinDesk)
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.