UBS has again raised its price forecast for memory chips, saying the DRAM shortage is expected to continue until 2028.
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UBS raised its target price for SK Hynix to 3.2 million won and maintained its buy rating.
According to a report by Odaily, SK Hynix is continuing to push for more revised long-term agreements, focusing on DDR5 and NAND Flash for hyperscale data center customers. These contracts have terms exceeding five years, with approximately 60% to 70% of the expected volume and price already locked in, which will improve future earnings visibility. Based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.65 for the next 12 months, UBS has raised its target price for SK Hynix from 3 million won to 3.2 million won and maintained its buy rating. SK Hynix began ramping up HBM4 shipments for its Rubin platform in the second quarter, indicating that it has completed final design adjustments to meet specifications. While Samsung Electronics' HBM bit market share may be slightly higher than SK Hynix's in 2027 (41% vs. 39%), in the long term, HBM's share in SK Hynix's DRAM business is expected to be higher than its peers. UBS predicts that HBM's share of DRAM revenue will rise from 15% in 2026 to 58% in 2030. Further increases in the average selling price of HBM will provide additional support for profitability in 2027. UBS stated that shareholder reward policies are expected to continue to strengthen, and anticipates share buybacks to begin after the ADR listing and gradually accelerate. UBS points out that DDR and NAND Flash contract pricing still has room for further increases in the second half of 2026. Considering the revised long-term agreements and HBM, UBS forecasts a 43% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM average selling prices in Q2 2026, a 21% increase in Q3, and a 13% increase in Q4; for NAND, it expects a 43% quarter-on-quarter increase in the mixed average selling price in Q2, a 25% increase in Q3, and a 10% increase in Q4. Taking into account the upward revision of average selling price forecasts, UBS has raised its SK Hynix operating profit forecast by 7% to 327 trillion won this year, and by 12% each for the next two years to 623 trillion won and 667 trillion won.
Counterpoint: Despite recent stock price corrections, the fundamentals of memory chips remain solid.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, MS Hwang, Director of Counterpoint Research, stated that the recent stock price pullback of memory chip manufacturers does not signify a fundamental shift in the memory chip market. Samsung Electronics fell 6.9% on Tuesday, and SK Hynix fell 6.1%, despite Samsung expecting another record-breaking quarter driven by strong demand. Some investors may believe that much of Samsung's upside potential, driven by expectations of improved profitability, has already been priced in. He said, "Recent strikes and political discussions surrounding profit sharing may also raise concerns about future shareholder returns." However, he pointed out that the fundamentals of memory chip manufacturers remain solid. According to Counterpoint's July memory chip price tracking report, DRAM prices are expected to rise 10%-20% in the third quarter, higher than its initial forecast of 5%-10%, as customers continue to place orders ahead of schedule.
Goldman Sachs raised the target prices of several chip and memory concept stocks.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs raised its target prices for several stocks in the semiconductor and memory sectors: AMD's target price was raised from $450 to $640, with a "buy" rating reiterated; Qualcomm's target price was raised from $145 to $180; Western Digital's target price was significantly raised from $400 to $650; and SanDisk's target price was raised from $1200 to $2200.
UBS raises Marvell Technology's target price to $340: AI network chips are a key catalyst; CXL high-speed interconnect opens up a multi-billion dollar market.
According to Mars Finance, UBS analysts have significantly raised their target price for Marvell Technology from $230 to $340, while maintaining a "buy" rating. The new target price implies an upside of nearly 39% from the recent closing price of approximately $276.70. The company launched the Teralynx T100, the industry's first 102.4 Tbps switching chip specifically designed for the AI era. UBS considers this product one of the core drivers of the company's future growth. UBS expects the global CXL market to reach a total potential size of approximately $4.5 billion by 2027, and is expected to further expand to $7 billion to $10 billion by 2030; Marvell's revenue from CXL-related businesses is expected to reach approximately $1 billion by 2027. (Cailian Press)
JPMorgan: Open source weight commercialization exhibits a "winner-takes-all" phenomenon; Zhipu target price raised to HK$2,000, MiniMax target price cut to HK$300.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that currently competitive models in the market can expand adoption through open-source weighting and continue to monetize through official APIs, partner channels, enterprise deployments, and workflow products; while weaker models face faster price comparisons and traffic fragmentation. JPMorgan Chase raised its revenue forecasts for Zhipu from 2026 to 2030 by 3% to 9%, and narrowed its adjusted loss forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to RMB 3.711 billion and RMB 3.141 billion respectively. The 2028 forecast was revised from a loss of RMB 1.287 billion to a profit of RMB 2.367 billion. The target price was raised from HKD 1800 to HKD 2000, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The report believes that the performance of GLM-5.5/6, KimiK3, and DeepSeekV4.1 will be key indicators of whether Zhipu can maintain its leading position. JPMorgan lowered its revenue forecasts for MINIMAX-W (2027-2030) by 2% to 8%, and reduced its target price from HK$400 to HK$300, while maintaining a "neutral" rating. The company noted that the M3 model offers a permanent 50% discount, reflecting that the model has not yet created a significant capability premium for leading domestic competitors. JPMorgan believes that if MiniMax can narrow the capability gap, normalize the discount, maintain API usage, and demonstrate stronger workflow stickiness through MiniMaxCode, its outlook could turn positive.
ADATA: Memory prices will rise by 20%-30% in Q3, and flash memory prices will rise by 35%-40%.
Mars Finance reports that ADATA Technology has warned of another price increase for DRAM and NAND flash memory in the third quarter of 2026, further driving up the prices of memory and storage products. ADATA Chairman Chen Libai stated that major memory manufacturers have already announced that DRAM contract prices will continue to rise by 20% to 30% in the third quarter of 2026, while NAND flash memory prices will increase by 35% to 40%. The continued rise in prices for both types of memory chips is expected to continue to drive the company's operating performance growth. (Cailian Press)