JPMorgan Chase: Semiconductor stocks' continued outperformance of cloud service providers may be unsustainable; AI trading may see sector rotation.
Related
JPMorgan: Weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity; the upward cycle is not yet nearing its end.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, JPMorgan strategists stated that the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet nearing its end, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. The bank noted that the SOX Semiconductor Index fell approximately 5.4% in the shortened trading week before the Independence Day holiday, marking its second consecutive week of decline. However, the sector rebounded rapidly on Monday, with Marvell, Broadcom, and storage-related stocks such as Western Digital and Seagate leading the gains, indicating that funds are still willing to return to the AI hardware chain. JPMorgan's view is not entirely bullish on AI concepts. The bank prefers the semiconductor and infrastructure sectors, while remaining cautious about the so-called "AI cannibalization" area—industries that may be replaced by AI, have lower prices, or have reduced profit margins. Sectors most affected include software, business services, and media. In other words, JPMorgan believes that AI will still create winners, but it may not benefit all AI-related companies; the certainty for hardware suppliers is higher in the short term than for some application and service companies.
JPMorgan Chase and HSBC: Market pullbacks provide a window for investment, not a trend reversal.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, as we enter the second half of the year, several Wall Street institutions believe that the recent market correction is more of a repositioning opportunity than a trend reversal. Both JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings believe that short-term volatility in global stock markets will not change the overall upward outlook, but the two institutions differ in their specific allocation strategies. Mislav Matejka, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, and his team stated that they have maintained a "buy on dips" view since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict. The bank believes that the global economy remains resilient, the situation in the Middle East has not significantly damaged economic growth, and central banks have not shifted to more aggressive tightening policies. Strategists expect that global and emerging market stock markets are likely to reach new highs in the future, and believe that the attractiveness of international markets is increasing. They also believe that the South Korean market, after its recent correction, is worth buying on dips. In terms of sectors, JPMorgan Chase believes that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has presented another buying opportunity after the recent correction, but remains relatively cautious about large-cap US technology stocks. The bank advises caution regarding AI-driven sectors, including software, business services, and media. Conversely, the basic resources sector has regained its investment value after recent adjustments, and gold is becoming more attractive. Strategists also point out that overall investor positioning remains cautious, with the market holding substantial cash reserves. If a summer correction occurs, funds are expected to flow back into the stock market. Max Kettner, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at HSBC Holdings, is more focused on the recovery opportunities in leading AI companies. He stated that the market is entering its summer rally in July and August, and AI hyperscale cloud service providers have already experienced a cumulative correction of approximately 20%, which is considered excessive. Kettner believes that current market expectations for these companies' earnings have been significantly lowered, and these companies still maintain strong profitability. If they can prove that their massive AI capital expenditures are gradually translating into revenue, it will further drive valuation recovery.
Semiconductor silicon wafer concept stocks continued to strengthen, with GRINM Silicon hitting the 20% daily limit.
According to Mars Finance, the semiconductor silicon wafer concept stocks continued to strengthen, with GRINM Silicon hitting the 20cm daily limit, Shanghai Hejing rising nearly 10%, and Shanghai Silicon Industry, TCL Zhonghuan, Lianyong Microelectronics, and Zhongjing Technology following suit. In terms of news, a research report from Caitong Securities pointed out that in mid-May this year, global silicon wafer leaders Shin-Etsu Chemical, SUMCO, and GlobalWafers initiated their second round of price increases this year. The price of 12-inch conventional silicon wafers increased by 5% to 8%, while high-end special-purpose silicon wafers adapted for AI/HPC scenarios saw increases of 18% to 22%. The cumulative increase from the two rounds of price increases this year exceeds 15%. (Cailian Press)
Morgan Stanley: Funds are rotating from chip stocks to AI cloud service providers; US stocks may struggle to reach new highs in the short term.
According to Mars Finance, Morgan Stanley strategists believe that US stocks may struggle to reach new all-time highs in the short term as investors take profits on tech stocks and rotate their assets. Strategist Wilson is bullish on hyperscale cloud service providers including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, believing their core businesses can support volatility in AI-related businesses. He predicts the S&P 500 will reach 8,000 points by the end of the year, with consumer discretionary, transportation, and biotechnology sectors potentially benefiting. (Cailian Press)
Bloomberg ETF analyst: US stocks are "too big to fail," and the Federal Reserve may purchase stock ETFs to rescue the market.
PANews reported on July 7th that Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, released research stating that the US stock market is gradually becoming a de facto "retirement fund" for Americans. With approximately 55% of Americans holding stocks and the "Trump Accounts" program expected to add about 28 million new investors, the link between the stock market and household wealth, pensions, and social stability is becoming increasingly close. He believes that in the next major bear market, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to purchase stock ETFs for the first time to stabilize the market, similar to its purchase of corporate bond ETFs in 2020, and the actions of the central banks of Japan and China. Balchunas believes that future political pressure will make a prolonged bear market increasingly intolerable, and the continued inflow of funds into ETFs on dips and investors' widespread expectation of government intervention also reflect this trend.
US pre-market news at a glance: Samsung's earnings report triggered a collective weakness in semiconductor stocks in pre-market trading; SpaceX officially debuts on the Nasdaq 100 today.
According to BlockBeats, the following are key market news items before the US stock market opened on July 7th: 1. Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing an operating profit increase of over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. Affected by the semiconductor sell-off triggered by the "sell-off" of Samsung's earnings, chip-related technology stocks generally weakened in pre-market trading. The three major US stock futures indices showed mixed results in pre-market trading: Dow Jones futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%. 2. SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq 100 before the US stock market opened today, with Wall Street institutions collectively bullish. Most institutions believe that SpaceX is no longer just a traditional aerospace company, but a platform company with the potential for rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and future space computing. 3. DeepSeek is secretly developing its own inference chip. If successful, this would reduce reliance on external suppliers and give it more cost-effective hardware control. However, the project is still in its early stages and faces manufacturing and memory acquisition restrictions due to US export controls. 4. UBS recommends investors buy SK Hynix's upcoming American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and sell its South Korean shares, as these new shares are expected to trade at higher prices. 5. JPMorgan strategists say the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet over, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. 6. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20 was 21,000, compared to 30,750 in the previous week. 7. BlackRock will launch an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to meet investors' growing demand for participation in the AI-driven stock market rally and challenge Invesco's dominant position. 8. Amazon is returning to the US bond market to raise funds for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company will issue eight benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 40 years, raising at least $25 billion in the dollar bond offering. 9. Global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has formed on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, although doubts remain about profitability and valuation.